Which books regularly top the UK bestseller list at Christmas and is there a way to predict it?
First came Black Friday, then its online equivalent, Cyber Monday, but few outside the publishing industry are aware of its bookish brother, Super Thursday. Usually in the first week of October, the annual event marks the release of big money hardbacks in the run up to Christmas.
This year saw 544 new hardbacks released, up 40 on last year, proving that Super Thursday is bigger than ever. And if publishers don’t play along, they’re likely to miss out on their title making it into the end of year charts as around a third of their volume sales are made in the final third of the year.
A look at charts from years gone by reveal a number of striking trends that should stand you in good stead if you’re the betting sort. Inevitably, celebrity autobiographies and memoirs do well and there are some promising titles this year. Michelle Obama’s Becoming is currently at number two in the Amazon book chart, Brutally Honest by former Spice Girl Mel B is at number seven, and there’s also My Thoughts Exactly from Lily Allen and How to Be a Footballer by Peter Crouch, which have both been well-reviewed and are likely to pick up sales over the next month.
Zoe Sugg AKA YouTuber Zoella follows up her controversially ghost-written fiction debut with Cordially Invited, a party guide that’s likely to do well among her young fanbase, while for the older crowd, there are some classic codgers penning their life stories, including Eric Idle and Michael Caine.
The Ice Monster by David Walliams
Fiction tends to underperform, with all the Man Booker Prize winners failing to get into the Top 100 in the last three years. Cult popular fiction, on the other hand, can win big. Grey, EL James’ continuation of her Fifty Shades series, was the bestselling book of 2015, selling double the amount of its nearest competitor. Thrillers like The Girl on the Train by Paula Hawkins, Elizabeth is Missing by Emma Healey and The Miniaturist by Jessie Burton – all boosted by screen adaptations – have appeared high in the Top Ten, too.
This year doesn’t look too promising for the category, however. Popular writers with new books include Kate Atkinson with Transcription, a Second World War spy thriller, and Sarah Perry with Melmoth, a gothic follow-up to 2016’s The Essex Serpent. Science can do well, with Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari snapping up the number eight spot last year and astronaut Tim Peake popping into the top 20 in 2016. Professor Stephen Hawking’s last book, Brief Answers to the Big Questions, is currently at number 10 with four weeks of sales to go.
Cookbooks – particularly ones that aim to have you out of the kitchen pronto – do especially well, particularly YouTuber Joe Wicks’ Lean in 15, which outsold Deliciously Ella, Nigella Lawson and Mary Berry in 2016. Jamie Oliver knows this, which is why 30 Minute Meals became 15 Minute Meals and his Five Ingredients: Quick and Easy Food was the bestselling book of 2017.
Brief Answers to the Big Questions by Stephen Hawking
Yet the most lucrative market of all is the children’s section. JK Rowling has been handsomely rewarded for her repeated visitations to the wizarding world, with the Cursed Child play taking the number one spot in 2016, while her screenplay for Fantastic Beasts occupied the number 16 spot. She releases the script for the film’s sequel, the Crimes of Grindelwald, this year so expect to see her again.
But the reigning king of children’s literature is David Walliams. The former Little Britain comedian has had at least one book in the Top Ten end-of-year bestsellers charts for the last three years and he currently has two books out, the World’s Worst Children 3 and Ice Monster, which looks certain to remain at number one come Christmas.