Which FTSE 100 companies are most exposed to Donald Trump?
The FTSE 100 has dropped by more than one per cent following the election of Donald Trump as US president, hitting a three-month low earlier this week.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has been soaring, leading to a clear divergence between the two indexes.
While not all of the poor performance of the FTSE 100 can be chalked up to Trump, analysts have definitely noticed that the result has had an impact on British markets.
“Investors are starting to realise that Donald Trump’s ideas could drive up inflation, make life tough for foreign companies selling into the US, and raise geopolitical risks. It creates the kind of uncertainty which markets hate,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
So which FTSE 100 stocks are suffering the most following a Trump victory?
Prudential
Prudential’s stock price has fallen more than eight per cent this month, taking an especially sharp dive after it was revealed that Trump was expected to nominate Republican Florida Senator Marco Rubio as secretary of state.
“For years, Rubio has been a critic of China and his appointment would put even more pressure on the [US-China] relationship,” explained Henry Heathfield, equity analyst at Morningstar. “The discussed 60 per cent tariffs on Chinese imports will, of course, stretch that relationship.”
Despite being listed in London, the FTSE 100 insurer has had a strong Chinese focus since 2021, divesting from US long-term savings business Jackson National Life and turning its attention towards Asia.
“While we do not think the growth of Prudential is tied to China’s gross domestic product, the rest of Asia will be hit by lower China GDP. China has recently announced it is sticking to its GDP target of five per cent for 2024,” said Heathfield.
“However, we think the share price of Prudential currently indicates the firm can only grow at four per cent for the next 10 years,” he explained.
FTSE 100 housebuilders
Housebuilders have also taken a plunge after fears that Trump may cause a slowdown in the UK thanks to his trade policies.
“If Trump’s most radical plans for tariffs are imposed there are deepening concerns about the knock-on effect on the UK and other European economies,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown.
“The impact of interest rates potentially staying higher-for-longer is weighing heavily on housebuilders, given how it’s likely to seriously affect buyer affordability and their ability to swallow price hikes.”
She noted that Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Redrow were among the top fallers in the FTSE 100 the day following Trump’s election win, and all are now down by at least ten per cent since the election.
Shell & BP
Oil giants Shell and BP have also suffered after the election: Shell has taken a three per cent dip, while BP is down 1.3 per cent.
“Limited stimulus measures from China and a stronger US dollar, following President Trump’s re-election, have weighed on oil prices, especially as easing tensions in the Middle East reduce upward price pressure,” explained Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.
Meanwhile, Trump’s ‘drill baby drill’ agenda has the potential for more oil and gas exploration in the US, leading to a further drop in oil and gas prices.
BAE Systems & Rolls-Royce
Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, identified BAE systems and Rolls-Royce as the two FTSE 100 companies with the most exposure to the US, thanks to their defence supplying to the government.
She noted that despite being the best performing stock of the FTSE 100 this year, Rolls-Royce has been “trading sideways” since mid-October.
It has since fallen more than one per cent since Trump’s election win last week.