Why a Brexit is a bit like a domino for those in other EU countries
Adults across the EU are referencing the childhood favourite dominos for a very grown-up reason in a new survey out today.
According to the research by Ipsos Mori, around half (48 per cent) of those in the EU countries it polled – Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain and Sweden along with Great Britain – believe that a Brexit could trigger a domino effect, with other countries campaigning for their own exit.
A similar proportion (42 per cent) of those surveyed from non-EU countries – Canada, the US, India, Australia and South Africa – also felt that a vote to leave on 23 June would cause other EU countries to shortly follow suit.
Meanwhile, 40 per cent of those surveyed from European countries said that they thought the EU would be in some way reduced by 2020 – for example, having less integration – while 11 per cent think the EU could be disbanded entirely by then.
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When quizzed about the possibility of a Brexit actually happening, those in other EU countries were more convinced that the UK would vote to leave than those in Great Britain. Just under half (49 per cent) of those surveyed from other EU countries thought that there would be a Brexit vote this summer, compared with only 35 per cent of Brits.
Of those surveyed in the non-EU countries, just short of two in five (38 per cent) thought that the UK would leave the EU.
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When asked what the potential impact of a vote to leave would be, more than half (51 per cent) thought that it would have a negative effect on the EU's overall economy, while only a third (36 per cent) thought it would damage the UK's economy.
Likewise, 48 per cent thought that a Brexit would have a negative impact on the EU's position on the world stage, compared with 38 per cent who felt the same way about the UK's influence after leaving.
"Having heard so much about 'Project Fear', and the risks of leaving, it's interesting to see that internationally, the more common view is that the UK would suffer less than the EU from the break up," said Bobby Duffy, managing director of the Ipsos Mori Social Research Institute.
"For Europeans, this possibly flows from their feelings about their own country’s relationship with the EU – they tend to feel there is likely to be a ripple effect following the UK vote."