Would a vote for Scottish independence significantly harm the UK’s security?
Professor Malcolm Chalmers, research director at RUSI, says Yes.
We won’t know how serious the consequences are until we know the separation terms. But if Scotland insists on expelling Trident by 2020, as is promised, the UK would not be able to rebuild nuclear bases fast enough to remain a nuclear power.
We could see Scotland outside Nato and the EU, resentful that it had been denied use of the pound, and facing a large-scale flight of people and business.
Economic confidence in England and Wales may well nosedive, especially if a 2017 EU pull-out remains on the cards.
With more austerity looming, the UK military could find itself paying for relocation even as its budget is being cut further.
Of course, a more cooperative outcome is possible. Scotland could allow Trident to stay. The army and RAF could remain in place, giving Scotland time to build its own forces.
But even in this best case, separation would be a massive distraction from the military’s core task: contributing to our security in a dangerous and uncertain world.
Dr John MacDonald, director of the Scottish Global Forum, says No.
The UK government would certainly miss the contribution that Scottish taxpayers make each year to the UK defence budget.
This sum will have to be found from a diminished UK tax base if the Ministry of Defence is to maintain what it currently does.
Trident’s future will be down to negotiation. It is also likely that some serving UK military personnel will transfer to a Scottish service if there is a Yes vote.
However, the notion that a Yes vote threatens UK security and defence has been significantly over-inflated by those wishing to scare Scots into voting No.
The image conjured – of distance, possible ill-feeling and a lack of cooperation between an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK – is highly dubious.
There will continue to be a multifaceted symbiosis between Scotland and the rest of the UK, with both sides (necessarily) cooperating in a variety of ways to maintain the security of the British Isles and its environs.