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A year after Osama Bin Laden’s death, is the world now a significantly safer place?

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YES

Robin Simcox

The world is undoubtedly a safer place following Osama bin Laden’s death. Al-Qaeda finds it easy to replenish mid-level commanders and footsoldiers, but a figurehead like bin Laden is virtually irreplaceable. Bin Laden’s sermons inspired Islamist extremists around the world to fight and die in his name; he also had military legitimacy, having spent time with the Afghan mujahideen in the 1980s. He oversaw a trio of devastating attacks on US targets – the two east African embassy bombings in 1998, the bombing of the USS Cole Navy destroyer in 2000, and finally the attacks on 9/11. This reputation allowed him to bring a host of disparate jihadist groups under the al-Qaeda banner. His replacement, Ayman Zawahiri, is nothing like as popular. Rather than martyr him, bin Laden’s death humanised him. It showed you could not murder thousands of US citizens without retribution.

Robin Simcox is research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

NO

Valentina Soria

The symbolic significance of Bin Laden’s demise largely outweighs its operational and strategic value. It has brought closure to those affected by the tragic events of 9/11, but it hasn’t significantly altered the kind of threat al-Qaeda poses to Western security. Bin Laden had become operationally irrelevant well before the raid, and exerted very little, if any, strategic control over a loose movement – encompassing al-Qaeda’s formal affiliates, like-minded organisations and radicalised individuals looking for a “cause”. The cumulative effect of counter-terrorism operations, targeting key operational figures, has contributed more to degrade al-Qaeda’s ability to carry out sophisticated attacks against the West. But if it can exploit local instability in the Middle East and, increasingly, Africa, al-Qaeda could regain the strength to continue to pursue Bin Laden’s ultimate mission of a global jihad against the West.

Valentina Soria is research analyst at the Royal United Services Institute.