2025: The year ahead in tech
2025 will be a defining year for businesses, marked by rapid technological shifts, political uncertainty, increased M&A, and intensifying competition. What else would a look ahead start with other than the much maligned AI?
I have said on stage a lot this year I think AI is underhyped despite many saying the opposite. You have to look beyond just generative AI is why. There’s a lot more going on in AI that simply what big tech wants you to buy next. I am talking about robots like Figure, autonomous drones, Yet, in 2025, the generative AI landscape will mature, but not without growing pains. Keeping up with OpenAI will be smart for any business, since they are still leading the pack, but Altman and co will face increasing challenges as regulators and competitors like Anthropic, Google, loom large. Rising operational costs and slower innovation cycles mean OpenAI’s once-commanding lead could diminish, with Amazon emerging as an unexpected contender (especially for Nvidia). Quietly building its AI infrastructure, Amazon is positioning itself nicely, and even Apple wants their chips. Expect more frenemy backscratching to happen as Apple makes moves. Businesses relying on these technologies will need to remain agile, vigilant, and avoid getting locked in.
Amid these technological disruptions, 2025’s broader context will undoubtedly be shaped by political and economic volatility. The “Trump Effect,” while still unknown will invariably introduce unpredictability across regulatory, tax, and trade policies. Plan for turmoil and quick pivots, and ensure you are paying attention and not just surveilling staff for productivity. Your greatest asset might be keeping silent, that’s on you to awaken the potential. For businesses operating globally, Trump will mean significant shifts in supply chains and compliance requirements. Workers, too, will face a challenging environment, as automation and AI continue to reshape roles and economic policies impact industries reliant on federal or international dynamics. Again, talk to your people now to avoid issues down the line.
Disruptors-in-residence
In uncertain times, the temptation to stay the course is understandable — but in 2025 it is ill-advised. One proactive move businesses should consider (and yes this is entirely self-serving but you don’t have to hire me) is hiring a Disruptor-in-residence. Ignore chasing trends or adding complexity for the sake of innovation. Instead embed critical, contrarian thinking into your organisation and at least poke the tough questions. Disruptors who are paid to preempt and identify blind spots, challenge outdated assumptions, and prototype solutions for emerging challenges. 2025 might just be the year where instead of surviving, or being competitive, you could be visionary. Again, for the sake of the lawyers and those rolling their eyes, other Disruptors-in-Residence are available.
Generative AI will continue to redefine roles across industries. The emergence of new positions like prompt engineers, AI ethicists, and generative AI editors will quieten down as people regain sense amidst the hype. Traditional roles — from marketing to operations — will increasingly require proficiency in AI tools like NotebookLM, OpenAI’s Sora, and whatever the next sleeper hit may be. Forward-thinking companies will properly invest in upskilling programs that prepare employees for these shifts, ensuring they remain productive and engaged. Avoid the pizza lunch-and-learn brigade and spend real money now or you’ll pay double later. Businesses that fail to adapt risk falling behind as both talent and technology evolve. Also, why would anyone stay where they aren’t being trained? Be aware that 50 per cent of staff are ‘shadow AI’ users, that means they’re using tools that aren’t sanctioned by you or IT with their roles. I am sure they have all the settings correctly to protect your IP…
Small, private communities are set to play a significant role in navigating this complexity. Again, somewhat self-serving, but platforms like TBD+ are more than networking spaces — they’re critical hubs for actionable insights, global connections, and trusted expertise. Unlike public platforms, which often prioritise breadth over depth, these communities foster meaningful collaboration and access to high-quality talent. Engaging with such networks will provide executives with early visibility into trends, help them identify reliable collaborators, and ensure they stay ahead of industry disruptions more than any LinkedIn post.
Political uncertainty
Political uncertainty will add an extra layer of complexity to any role-actually and mentally. The policies and priorities of the new U.S. administration, and the UK one, could create volatility in sectors from healthcare to technology. Businesses must anticipate these changes by diversifying supply chains, building regulatory flexibility into their operations, and preparing for sudden shifts in market conditions. Workers, too, will feel the strain, as job security and automation fears grow. Companies can play a critical role in mitigating these challenges by fostering transparency, offering reskilling opportunities, and creating clear pathways for career growth.
Ok, now for the good news. 2025 holds plenty of things to be optimistic about because of the incredible advancements emerging technologies are bringing to the forefront. 3D printing techniques are revolutionising manufacturing and healthcare, from creating affordable housing solutions to bioprinting organs. Nanotechnology is making leaps in material science, enabling stronger, lighter materials and breakthroughs in targeted drug delivery. GLP-1 drugs are offering a game-changing approach to weight management and diabetes care, improving millions of lives. Quantum computing is beginning to solve previously unsolvable problems, from optimising complex logistics networks to accelerating breakthroughs in renewable energy. Weather prediction is getting more accurate. New media options like Bluesky are challenging traditional social platforms, and brands seem to be figuring out that staying on rage-fuelled platforms does more harm than good. These advancements represent just a glimpse of how technology is reshaping industries and daily life, and leave me optimistic about a future filled with creativity, health, and most importantly connection.
Despite this, 2025 will demand that businesses reassess strategies regularly; it’s not a “set it and forget it” year. Instead, it’s on leaders, and all of us, to embrace a culture of agility and continuous improvement while preparing successors. Success will come from waiting for enough clarity and from making calculated moves in the face of uncertainty. The choices made this year will have long-term implications, shaping the trajectory of industries and careers. While uncertainty is inevitable, so too is opportunity for those prepared to act decisively and strategically. Keep yourself, and your people, positive when it comes to technology in 2025.
Paul Armstrong is founder of TBD Group and author of Disruptive Technologies