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Friday 27 May 2016 8:53 am

World leaders declare Brexit a “serious risk to growth”

By: Jake Cordell

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World leaders have said the possibility of the UK voting to leave the European Union poses one of the most serious risks to growth in the global economy.

At the end of the second day of the G7 meeting in Japan, the leaders of the seven big industrial nations, plus the European Union, said:

“A UK exit from the EU would reverse the trend towards greater global trade and investment, and the jobs they create, and is a further serious risk to growth.”

Read more: Is the G7 just a pointless talking shop?

The comments came one day after Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe kicked off the summit with a warning the world could be on the brink of another 2008-style global recession, pointing to the slump in commodities prices as a prescient sign of doom.

The leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United States and the UK, along with top EU representatives, have put growth at the heart of their agenda for their third annual meet-up since the G8 became the G7 following the expulsion of Russia in 2014.

G7 growth forecasts

Country 2016 2017 2018
Canada 1.5 per cent 1.9 per cent 2.1 per cent
France 1.1 per cent 1.3 per cent 1.5 per cent
Germany 1.5 per cent 1.6 per cent 1.4 per cent
Italy 1.0 per cent 1.2 per cent 1.0 per cent
Japan 0.5 per cent minus 0.1 per cent 0.4 per cent
UK 1.9 per cent 2.2 per cent 2.2 per cent
US 2.4 per cent 2.5 per cent 2.4 per cent

Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), April 2016

“Global growth is our urgent priority. [It] remains moderate and below potential, while risks of weak growth persist,” the group said in a joint statement this morning.

“We reiterate our commitments to using all policy tools – monetary, fiscal and structural – individually and collectively, to strengthen global demand and address supply constraints, while continuing our efforts to put debt on a sustainable path.”

A string of forecasters, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have slashed their forecasts for the world economy since the start of the year as persistent economic and political threats have weighed heavily on confidence around the world.

G7 debt forecasts

Country Debt-to-GDP ratio
Canada 27.5 per cent
France 90.5 per cent
Germany 46.7 per cent
Italy 111.8 per cent
Japan 129.6 per cent
UK 80.6 per cent
US 82.2 per cent

Source: General government net debt, IMF

The G7 also discussed issues ranging from healthcare to terrorism and cyber security to corruption. Unsurprisingly, the group backed a string of deals and accords that have been pushed forward by other international bodies over the past year, including the Paris Agreement on climate change and the outcomes of David Cameron’s anti-corruption summit held in London earlier this month.

Trade has also been high on the agenda. Yesterday, officials committed to finalising the EU-Japan trade deal by the end of the year, and backed a host of other trade negotiations including the recently signed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) between the US and Japan, the US-EU Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between Canada and the EU.

Barack Obama is scheduled to become the first US President to visit Hiroshima later today, where he will commemorate all victims of the Second World War, though he has said that he will not apologise for the US' decision to drop the atomic bomb in 1945.

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