Analyst picks for 14 May 2012
CURRENCY STRATEGIST
JOEL KRUGER
My pick: Long euro-yen at ¥0.805, stop on a ¥0.7950 daily close
Expertise: Technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week
The cross rate has now accelerated to fresh yearly and multi-month lows, leaving daily studies well stretched and in serious need of a major corrective bounce. The daily Relative Strength Index is now correcting from dramatically oversold territory, and we like the idea of the fresh long in favour of a significant bounce over the coming sessions. There is also a good deal of medium-term resistance now turned support from 2008 at current levels.
CURRENCY STRATEGIST
ILYA SPIVAK
My pick: Stay short euro-dollar
Expertise: Global macro
Average time frame of trades: 1 week to 6 months
Last week I sold euro-dollar at $1.3004, as prices closed below support at $1.3025 – initially targeting $1.2865 and $1.2674. The pair has now touched the first objective and I will look for a close below it to move my stop-loss to breakeven before allowing it to continue lower. Continuing uncertainty about the political situation in Greece remains the catalyst. A bounce to $1.30 will be treated as an opportunity to add to the position.
CHIEF STRATEGIST
JOHN KICKLIGHTER
My pick: Short euro-dollar; long euro-Swissie and euro-Aussie Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week
We seem to be closer to a seismic shift in risk trends than any other time this year. Yet, I’ve been fooled before. I’m looking for balance. For outright risk, I have taken a short euro-dollar position from $1.2935 against a close above $1.3000. Less risk sensitive, I like a euro-Australian dollar above Au$1.2900 (risk vs. Eurozone crisis). Lastly, there is the euro-Swiss Franc long (above SFr1.2060). Until the Swiss National Bank gives or acts, I’ll likely stick with this one.