Arsenal can keep goals flowing in London derby
FULHAM vs WEST HAM
Tomorrow 5.30pm, ESPN
PREMIER LEAGUE football fans certainly can’t complain about a boring start to the season. There have been 70 goals in the last 20 matches – results which have cost Sporting Index a small fortune, with spread bettors buying match goals, goal minutes and shirt numbers. Arsenal have been one of the main ‘culprits’ and their three away games this season have produced an astonishing 16 goals.
The Gunners have won six of their past eight visits to Craven Cottage in the league, but they have lost twice in the last three years. Fulham did tremendously well to finish seventh last season and took seven points from a possible 12 at home against the Big Four, but their form this time around has been well off that level, suffering three defeats from five games. Roy Hodgson’s side have also been poor at home since March, losing five of nine games, including two against bottom-six finishers Hull and Blackburn.
Arsene Wenger was smarting after his side’s 4-2 defeat against Man City recently, but his team produced a strong performance to comfortably beat Wigan 4-0 at the weekend. The two defeats in Manchester would have hurt the Gunners but, prior to those, they were unbeaten on their travels since their loss at Stoke last November. The victory at Chelsea later that month started a run of seven wins and six draws, during which they won five of their six games against current bottom-half sides, all by at least two clear goals.
The worry for Hodgson is that, of his side’s five most recent home defeats, they have lost four by at least a two goal margin. He also won’t be pleased to see that Arsenal are the league’s highest scorers, netting 17 from their five games at an average of 3.4 goals per game.
There is plenty in these figures to suggest that Arsenal can comfortably beat Fulham, so a buy of their supremacy with Sporting Index, as well as total match goals, looks a decent strategy.
POINTERS…
Arsenal to win at 8/13 on Betdaq
Buy Arsenal supremacy at 1.2 with Sporting Index
Buy total match goals at 2.9 with Sporting Index
MANCHESTER CITY vs WEST HAM
Monday 8pm, ESPN
MARK HUGHES will take no joy from being the manager of the side who lost the greatest Manchester derby of all time, but he will have been pleased with his side’s character, if not their defensive frailties. It’s worth remembering though that City hadn’t conceded in the league until they faced Arsenal and United and there are strong indicators to suggest they can beat West Ham and keep a clean sheet on Monday night.
Eastlands has been an absolute fortress in 2009 – City have won 11 of 12 since Boxing Day, eight by the half-time / full-time margin, six to nil and five by two or more goals. In their last seven home games against current bottom-half sides they have won all seven, five by the half-time / full time double result and four to nil. Incredibly, since Boxing Day the Blues have scored first in all 12 of their games at Eastlands.
Some might argue that this dominance has only been since Mark Hughes has been at the helm, but if we go back to 2007/08, City have won 85% (17 / 20) of their home games against bottom-half sides. That sits very nicely with West Ham’s record at current top-six sides in the same period where they have gone W0-D6-L7, losing five to nil, four at half-time / full-time and only scoring first in two of 13 games.
It’s not just the Big Four who have beaten the Hammers though – they have only won two (W2-D4-L4) of 10 trips to top-half, non Big Four sides since 2007/08. They also haven’t made a great start to the season and have failed to score in their last two away games at Blackburn and Wigan.
POINTERS…
Man City to score first at 4/11 with Boylesports
Man City to win with a clean sheet 13/10 with Boylesports
HT Man City / FT Man City at 11/10 with Hills
PREMIER LEAGUE ROUND UP…
THERE have only been four draws in the opening 56 games of this season and Bettorlogic analysis shows that a rate of just 7 per cent at this stage is twice as low as any season in the Premier League era. It’s true that this can’t continue for too long, but looking at this weekend’s fixtures there certainly appear to be a number of mis-matches. The Big Four should all win – either to nil or by more than one goal – whilst the pretenders to the crown, Man City and Tottenham (v Burnley), also look good value for wins to nil.
Add to this the fact that Sunderland (v Wolves) have won all five against promoted sides since they came back up, Aston Villa have won seven of their last nine against Blackburn (including their last three at Ewood) and Portsmouth (v Everton) have lost all six this season, the lack of draws looks set to continue.
I’m not normally a fan of backing the Big Four in an acca, but this week looks particularly strong and you can back that outcome at 13/5 with Boylesports and 9/2 if you add in Man City. However, although I’m not sure if Arsenal can keep a clean sheet, I’m tempted to try a big-priced acca concentrating primarily on the big teams winning without conceding.
POINTERS…
Man United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City to win at 9/2 with Boylesports
Man United, Chelsea, Liverpool to win to nil and Arsenal to win by more than one goal at 16/1 with Boylesports