Bank of England holds interest rates amid low growth and trade tensions
The Bank of England has held interest rates at 4.5 per cent as worries over a global trade war flare up.
Rate-setter Swati Dhingra, an external member on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), was the lone wolf who voted for a 25 basis point cut.
The decision saw Catherine Mann split from Dhingra after the pair voted for a radical 50 basis point cut in February.
Pessimism over UK growth continued as President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, including on steel and aluminium, has put the Bank’s economists on edge.
It also stuck by its February prediction that inflation could hit a peak of 3.75 per cent this year.
“There’s a lot of economic uncertainty at the moment,” said Andrew Bailey, the central bank’s governor.
While the bank had held rates at 4.5 per cent, he added: “we still think that interest rates are on a gradually declining path.”
Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the government had “work to do” to ease inflation.
“I’m fighting every day to put more money in the pockets of working people to deliver our Plan for Change,” she said.
Many City analysts had expected the Bank of England to hold its interest rates, with economists and business leaders believing that a cut in May was more likely.
“We’ll be looking very closely at how the global and domestic economies are evolving at each of our six-weekly rate-setting meetings,” Bailey said. “Whatever happens, it’s our job to make sure that inflation stays low and stable.”
Inflation creeping up
Inflation hit three per cent in January, with figures for price rises in February set to be released next Wednesday ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves Spring Statement.
Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures released this morning delivered an ominous warning to forecasters measuring inflation.
Wage growth of 5.9 per cent between November 2024 and January 2025 was likely to exacerbate inflation.
Capital Economics economist Ruth Gregory said earlier today the figures had left the Bank in a “tricky position”.
The Bank said its Agents around the country “had reported that activity remained subdued, with weak consumer and business sentiment perceived as the main barrier to growth.”
Hargreaves Lansdown‘s head of money and markets, Susannah Streeter, warned that price rises are likely to persist.
“Pay growth remains strong, with vacancies rising and so there is concern that inflation will stay stubborn – it’s forecast to rise to 3.75 per cent in the third quarter of this year before falling back – just as the economy has gone into reverse,” she said.
“Stagflation has reared its head and does not look like it’s going to back away soon, which is set to keep decision making difficult.
“But concerns about growth may soon start to outweigh worries about sticky prices.”
US Fed sets trend
The Bank followed a decision by the US’s Federal Reserve to hold interest rates last night.
The Fed held rates at about 4.5 per cent, partly due to President Donald Trump’s extreme tariffs agenda.
The Fed also revised America’s economic outlook as it cut its growth forecast to 1.7 per cent from 2.1 per cent.
It also predicted inflation could approach nearly 3 per cent.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that “further progress” to the world’s biggest economy may be delayed as a result of the uncertainty brought by Trump’s flip-flopping on policy.
Policymakers at the Bank of England said it was “less clear” how tariffs would impact the UK economy.
The minutes from the MPC decision suggested the Bank would assess Trump’s tariffs at the next decision in May.