Bath favourites for Premiership title but you cannot write off Cheika
Saturday’s sell-out Premiership final between Bath Rugby and Leicester Tigers feels like something from the 90s, when these two – alongside Wasps – were the powerhouses of English ovalball.
But looking at the two squads set to clash at the 82,000-capacity Allianz Stadium in Twickenham this weekend, they couldn’t be any further from those teams that dominated 30 years ago.
Look at Bath, led by South African Johann van Graan, and you’ll see the dogged forwards like Tom Dunn dusting people phase after phase for 80 minutes while the backs seem to operate with a level of telepathy that would have seen you burned at the stake for witchcraft in eras gone by.
Bath lead the way
They have been the best team in England by far this season, and probably across the last 24 months too – even though they lost the final last year against Northampton Saints.
Over 10 points clear after the regular season, Bath powered past Bristol Bears in the play-offs with a superb second 40. And looking at their team from No1 through to No23 you can see why.
There are very few, if any, weak links in that side and the bench always makes an impact. It is an astonishing group Van Graan has been able to build – and that’s before the likes of Argentina’s Santi Carreras and Henry Arundell, who joined up with England this week, arrive in the summer.
It couldn’t be any more different to the situation at Leicester Tigers. Head coach Michael Cheika is on his way out of the door, to be replaced by former player Geoff Parling, while club stalwarts Dan Cole and Ben Youngs are retiring and World Cup-winning Springbok fly-half Handre Pollard is also on the move.
The underdogs, then, will be riding on a wave of extreme emotion – something that helped them win their previous title when the departing Freddie Burns slotted a last-minute drop goal to secure the trophy in 2022.
But they can be dangerous things, emotions. They led to Bath prop Beno Obano being sent off in last year’s final, and it could be the undoing of a Leicester side who are already seen as outsiders – the bookies have Bath at 3/10 while the East Mids side are 5/2.
How do Leicester win Premiership?
So how on earth do Leicester topple Bath beyond establishing a psychological edge? I think it comes down to South African Pollard.
The 31-year-old had one of the great halves during his side’s semi-final victory over Sale Sharks last week. He pinned the northerners in the corners and kept them on the back foot. But after the half-time break he went a little off the boil and, combined with smart Sale substitutes, the away side came back into the tussle.
This weekend, up against Fin Russell, Pollard will need a full 80 minutes of supreme rugby – passing through the hands, choosing the right crashball runner, and with the boot.
These matches can be decided on one moment of brilliance, or a minuscule error.
This is the final this year’s Premiership season deserves; the top two sides have been great all season and will fight it out in one of rugby’s great arenas this weekend.
If Bath win it, the Premiership will have seen six different winners in six seasons – along with Exeter Chiefs, Harlequins, Leicester, Saracens and Northampton. If Leicester prevail then Cheika will become the only coach to have won the Premiership, URC, Champions Cup and Super Rugby titles. Extraordinary.
It is all on the line. I am backing Bath but my former Stade Francais coach Cheika will be desperate to upset the apple cart.
Former England Sevens captain Ollie Phillips is the founder of Optimist Performance. Follow Ollie @OlliePhillips11