Bring back Burnham now!
Voters have sent the clearest possible message that they are sick of the Starmer government. Andy Burnham is the only man who can make Labour popular again, says John McTernan
The verdict is in. The country has had enough of this Labour government. The election results could not have been any starker.
The SNP returned to government in Scotland again after nearly 20 years in office. Welsh Labour’s 110 year dominance of the principality was brutally ended. Labour’s heartland, London – it produced four of the last five leaders – is now a multi-party patchwork. And the Greens and Reform surged across the whole of England.
Honestly, what more do voters have to say to the Starmer government? They gave a landslide for change in 2024 and now they want another change. The question, as ever, is what to? For all the noise around the results the position of UK politics remains as it has been since the last general election. Two blocs face off against each other. The conservative bloc is now owned by Reform – hence their victories. The progressive bloc is four or five parties – Labour, Greens, Liberal Democrats, independents and nationalists.
Labour needs renewal. A rewrite not a reset. New ideas fronted by new faces. And the thing is the Labour party knows exactly who they need. Because their leadership spent so much time – and electoral support in blocking him. It’s time for Andy Burnham.
If No 10 have a strategy it is clearly not the hope that with one speech Keir Starmer will break through to the voters, and start to rebuild electoral support. In truth, it’s their hope that they can continually block Andy Burnham’s return to the House of Commons. No matter what the damage to the Labour party’s support in the polls.
This is no longer a project of national renewal, a plan for 1.5m new homes, just a defence of one man’s tenancy.
At first glance, this is a Mexican standoff with Wes Streeting, Shabana Mahmood, Angela Rayner, and other leadership contenders hesitating; and, Andy Burnham, the favourite unable to be nominated because he is not an MP. Advantage: Starmer. Yet a closer look shows not just the isolation of No 10 but its impotence. They can delay but can’t deny. That’s the plan. “Stop Andy!” Live to fight another day.
Yet, in the end, it is a process answer to a substance problem. The first rule of politics is that the voters are never wrong. The question Labour have to answer is who they lost last Thursday, why they lost and what strategy to adopt to rebuild a winning coalition.
Britain’s voters are progressive
The size of Reform gains across England concealed a fundamental fact – the progressive bloc of voters is still by some way the largest in the UK. The BBC’s projected national share of the vote gives it 57 per cent of the vote compared to the combined 43 per cent of Reform and the Tories. That should mean the dominance of progressive parties and politics, yet the even split – 17 per cent Labour, 16 per cent Greens, 16 per cent Lib Dems – means they cannibalise each other’s support.
It’s not a case of Labour “moving to the left” – this is already a left wing government with its signature achievements coming from the soft left – Louise Haigh’s railway nationalization, Angela Rayner’s workers’ rights and renters rights, and Ed Miliband’s green transition. It’s more the need – to adapt the words of James Brown – “say it loud, we’re soft left and we’re proud!”
In the thirties, bank robber Willie Sutton made an important observation. Quizzed by the FBI about why he had robbed so many banks, he replied “That’s where the money is!” Labour need to obey “Sutton’s Law” – go where the votes are! Only two per cent of Reform voters say that they would be willing to listen to the Labour party again. The ones who used to be Labour have been on a decade’s long journey that started with the Brexit referendum. Voters who have gone Green have just switched but Scotland has shown that a change can become a habit.
To win a game, you need your best playmaker on the field. After two years in government Labour needs a Cabinet member who is listened to when he speaks. In pubs, at football matches, when he is spotted Andy Burnham is asked for selfies by fans. That is the regular expression of the fact he has positive approval ratings.
Time to bring Andy back. Now!
John McTernan is a political strategist and commentator and former adviser to Tony Blair