Brits are bracing for the worst as Trump’s tariffs bite
Trump’s tariffs are having a seismic impact on British politics, the economy and even the national mood, the latest Morning Wire/Freshwater Strategy poll shows, writes Matthew Lesh
Last month’s City Am / Freshwater Strategy poll revealed some green shoots for the economy. While far from a glowing overall picture, the trend was towards a more optimistic outlook for the country and people’s finances since the start of the year.
Things were looking up — that is, until Donald Trump decided to ignite a global trade war, wipe trillions off global stock markets, and throw the international economic system into disarray.
Trump’s tariffs are having a seismic impact on British politics, the economy and even the national mood.
Sixty per cent of voters believe the economy will worsen over the next 12 months, up eight percentage points since last month. Just 17 per cent think it will improve, down five percentage points. Almost three-quarters of voters (74 per cent) now believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, up six percentage points in the last month.
There has been a corresponding decline in people’s views about their own situation, with 58 per cent now saying they expect their living standards to worsen over the coming year, up an astonishing 11 percentage points in just one month.
Shifting public sentiment
These are all enormous shifts in public sentiment for just one month.
This, of course, corresponds with widespread concern about the impact of the tariffs. Over two-thirds (69 per cent) are worried about Trump’s tariffs’ impact on the British economy and a clear majority (59 per cent) on their personal finances.
In recent days, the government has been scrambling to calibrate an appropriate response to the turmoil. Voters strongly support seeking closer trade ties with other countries (70 per cent) and negotiating with the US (67 per cent). There’s moderate support for cutting taxes on British businesses (44 per cent) and providing financial assistance (43 per cent).
Interestingly, when it comes to the prospect of retaliatory tariffs on US imports into the UK, voters have some sympathies (47 per cent). But support goes down significantly (33 per cent) at the prospect that retaliatory tariffs mean higher prices and fewer jobs in Britain.
For the already embattled government, Trump’s tariffs are failing to produce a ‘rally-round-the-flag’ effect. Two-thirds are not confident in Keir Starmer’s ability to negotiate a trade deal with the US, and a majority (54 per cent) believe that Starmer should be more forceful in responding.
The broader political winds are far from rosy for the government. Reform continues to lead with 28 per cent (up one percentage point since March), followed by the Conservatives at 27 per cent (up four percentage points), and Labour are down two points to 24 per cent.
Opposition Leader Kemi Badenoch has regained her position as preferred Prime Minister, though her personal approval rating and Starmer’s are both down. Perhaps Starmer can take some solace in the emergence of a character even less popular. Donald Trump’s net personal approval rating among Brits has taken a 17 percentage point dive over the last month.
The ‘global headwinds’ – as the government persists on euphemistically calling it – are arriving just after an unpopular Spring Statement and as Brits are being stung by tax and bill rises this month. The ‘Awful April’ increases in household costs, from electricity and water to council tax, have resulted in more than two-thirds (69 per cent) cutting back on other spending.
It’s a tumultuous time for Britain and the world. The rules of the game are being upended, and households are bracing for the worst. The question now is whether Britian will become further collateral damage in Trump’s trade war or whether a new course can be charted.
Matthew Lesh is country manager at Freshwater Strategy