Burnham bounce: PM gets popularity boost – at Farage’s expense
Andy Burnham scored a sharp boost in popularity ratings in July just as Nigel Farage’s ratings cratered, new polling has found.
The latest Morning Wire/Freshwater Strategy poll of UK voters has shown that Burnham’s approval ratings jumped by 12 points in July from a net score of zero, making him the most positively received figure in British politics and the only leader whose approval materially exceeds his unfavourability (42 per cent favourable against 30 per cent unfavourable).
Farage’s ratings, however, dropped by the equivalent amount to -20.
New polling data puts the so-called “Burnham bounce” into perspective, with his gain coming at the expense of Farage, who has faced greater scrutiny over his financial dealings.
But party polling has not swung as far as personal ratings have. Reform UK is still the most popular party with 26 per cent of the voter share, falling by just three points on the month. Labour and the Conservatives were on 23 per cent each.
The Liberal Democrats fell behind the Green Party, which won nine and 10 per cent of the voter share in July polling respectively.
Freshwater Strategy polling guru Dr Michal Turner said there was a “clear divergence” in the leading indicators though Burnham’s popularity jump had not yet translated into a boost for Labour more widely.
“That’s actually the normal sequence of events; permission to be heard from voters comes first; then vote intentions follow or they don’t, once voters take a better look,” Turner said.
“The question for Burnham and Labour is whether they can convert the goodwill into votes before the novelty of a new leader wears off. On the evidence of the last decade in Britain, that window can be probably measured in weeks, rather than months and years.”
Burnham trusted on inflation
Turner also highlighted that, under Burnham, Labour had won back the trust of voters on issues such as reducing inflation, improving health and tackling crime, which was previously a crucial winning area for Reform.
The Freshwater pollster said that an early election would become an “increasingly attractive option” for Burnham given his promises to change the UK’s political culture and introduce radical reforms.
The new Prime Minister had ruled out calling an early election though he indicated that he would have to get “people’s consent” on proposed social care reforms that require “difficult decisions”.
As social care did not feature prominently in Labour’s 2024 election manifesto, strategists have taken his comments as a signal that a new election could take place before the scheduled date of 2029.
Morning Wire/Freshwater Strategy polling has also shown that Tory leader Kemi Badenoch maintained net positive levels of favourability despite Burnham’s return to Westminster, with her score coming to four.
In a three-way contest as the “preferred Prime Minister”, Burnham beats both other main party leaders. Badenoch is preferred over Farage by 23 points in a head-to-head battle although the gap between Burnham and the Reform leader – of 25 points – is slightly larger. The distance between Burnham and Badenoch is the smallest at 18 points.
Badenoch’s Conservatives are more trusted than Reform on issues including reducing government spending, improving wages and reducing the cost of living.
Method note: Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,248 eligible voters in the UK, aged 18+, online, between 7-10 August 2026. Margin of error +/- 2.8%. Data are weighted to be representative of UK voters. Freshwater Strategy are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.