Burnham surges in popularity as Farage slides, but party polls barely budge

Andy Burnham has opened up a commanding lead in personal popularity since entering Downing Street, while Nigel Farage has seen his standing collapse by an almost identical margin, according to the latest City AM/Freshwater Strategy survey of UK voters.

The poll, conducted between 7 and 10 August, puts the prime minister's net approval at +12, a 12-point jump from July, with 42 per cent of respondents viewing him favourably against 30 per cent unfavourably. That makes him the only national leader whose positive rating materially exceeds his negative one. Farage, by contrast, slipped to a net -20, down 12 points on the month.

Despite the dramatic shift in personal ratings, party voting intention has barely moved. Reform UK remains the most popular party on 26 per cent, down just three points. Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 23 per cent each, while the Green Party (10 per cent) has edged ahead of the Liberal Democrats (9 per cent).

Trust on the issues that matter

Freshwater Strategy's Dr Michal Turner said the poll revealed a "clear divergence" in leading indicators. Labour under Burnham has reclaimed voter trust on reducing inflation, improving the NHS and tackling crime, three areas where Reform previously held an advantage.

That's actually the normal sequence of events; permission to be heard from voters comes first; then vote intentions follow or they don't, once voters take a better look.

Turner added that an early election was becoming an "increasingly attractive option" for the prime minister given his pledge to change political culture and introduce radical reforms. Burnham has ruled out a snap poll but said he would need to seek "people's consent" on social care reforms requiring "difficult decisions", a policy area notably absent from Labour's 2024 manifesto. Strategists read that as a signal that a fresh mandate could be sought before the scheduled 2029 election.

Badenoch holds ground

Kemi Badenoch retains a net positive favourability of +4, and the Conservatives are trusted more than Reform on reducing government spending, improving wages and easing the cost of living. In head-to-head preferred prime minister match-ups, Burnham leads Badenoch by 18 points and Farage by 25, while Badenoch beats Farage by 23 points.

The survey interviewed 1,248 eligible UK voters online and carries a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. Freshwater Strategy is a member of the British Polling Council.

For now, the "Burnham bounce" is a personal phenomenon. The test for Labour is whether it translates into a sustained party lead before the honeymoon ends, a window Turner suggests may be measured in weeks rather than months. Read more about Burnham's economic advisory team and the internal debates shaping his early agenda.