It’s still a tall order for the Conservatives to take an electoral sweep of London
Two intriguing political contests in two days has seen Susan Hall’s selection as Tory Mayoral candidate and Labour’s surprise failure to win the Uxbridge & South Ruislip by-election. With crucial political battles ahead over the coming year, many soothsayers will be chewing the fat of these two races.
First, let’s be frank – Uxbridge was a clash of an unpopular national party (Conservatives) and an unpopular local policy (ULEZ expansion) – turns out voters felt ULEZ was marginally more unpopular than the Tories. Buoyed by holding the seat, the Tories might see this as the bones of an electoral strategy to hold outer London marginals like Chipping Barnet, Chingford and Woodford Green at the next General Election. But generals are not by-elections, and it’ll be an uphill struggle to repeat the strategy of making contests referendums on a single issue. On current polling, Labour will still fancy taking Uxbridge.
What might Uxbridge mean for the Tories chances of capturing City Hall? First, the win shows the colossal London Labour Party campaign beast can be tamed. Second, Susan Hall clearly hopes her stated opposition to ULEZ expansion, 20mph speed limits, Low Traffic Neighbourhoods (LTNs), building of homes on tube station car parks and tall buildings appeals to the suburbs. Her ‘Safer with Susan’ focus on policing and public safety reflects her confidence that crime is a weak spot for Khan.
But with Mayoral elections a citywide contest, winning the suburbs alone is not enough. Success requires a coalition of voters that straddles the whole city. Boris Johnson proved this for the Tories in his two mayoral wins by piling up votes in outer London’s ‘blue donut’, as well as gaining substantial support in inner London.
However, much has changed since Mayor Johnson, leaving the Tory’s task a much taller order. Turbocharged demographic change has seen outer London increasingly resemble inner London, including people’s left-leaning voting habits. More liberal and strongly anti-Brexit inner London is now hostile territory for the Tories, as witnessed in the seismic losses of Wandsworth and Westminster last May. Hall’s support for Brexit, Boris Johnson and Donald Trump aren’t likely to help the Tories in inner London where Khan appears more in tune with voters values.
That being said, Uxbridge has shown that Labour and Khan don’t have it all their own way. There are votes in opposing ULEZ expansion– the question is are there enough to hurt Khan. With the public tiring of their politicians after a while, Khan’s challenge is how to head into next May’s election after 8 years as Mayor with fresh solutions to the city’s problems. With the Met Police and London Fire Brigade effectively in special measures, and Transport for London’s (TfL’s) finances still shaky, Khan’s opponents will hope these leave him vulnerable.
Next year’s Mayoral election will also be fought on a first past the post system, and the first with new rules on voter ID at polling stations. While the impacts are unclear, conceivably the next Mayor could win with just 35 per cent of the vote. A left vote splintered across Labour, Green and the Lib Dems could allow the Tories to sneak through. Expect Labour’s campaign messaging to frighten those flirting with the Greens or Lib Dems.
There’s a route to City Hall for the Tories if a whole constellation of stars aligns. They’d need to mobilise their suburban voters, tap into unhappiness with ULEZ, pick up substantial support in inner London, and see Labour’s vote stay at home or nibbled away by the Lib Dems and the Greens. But it’s a big ‘if’. And frankly, without a narrowing of the large national Labour poll leads, there’s a limit to how much anything Hall – or, for that matter, Khan – does or says would make any material difference to the result.