Carmers is one to put Twomey in the big time
AIDAN O’Brien has made the Queen’s Vase (3.05pm) his own in recent years.
The master of Ballydoyle has won the race eight times and equalled Sir Henry Cecil’s record of victories in the race last year with Thursday’s Gold Cup favourite Illinois.
Bookmakers seem to expect O’Brien’s Shackleton to take that tally to nine wins this afternoon, but on the face of it, I don’t think he’s a favourite I want to be with.
He took three starts to get off the mark as a two-year-old and was put in his place in Group Three company on his final start last year at Newmarket.
Punters were asked to take 6/4 about him when a beaten favourite on his seasonal bow in May, and I don’t think he’s on the level of some of O’Brien’s winners of this, so I’ll take him on.
There’s no doubt that Francis-Henri Graffard’s Asmarani is a fascinating runner from France, and he must be respected when he brings his horses to Royal Ascot, but I’m very intrigued to see what CARMERS can do for Paddy Twomey.
The Wootton Bassett colt was unraced as a juvenile and is a perfect two-from-two this term, last seen backing up his maiden win at Ballinrobe with a dominant success in Listed company in mid-May at Navan.
The style of his victory that day, when he powered clear of his rivals assertively, marked him out as a horse to follow.
These are much deeper waters, but he is guaranteed to stay the trip, and with his progressive profile I expect him to improve once again and land the hat-trick.
Twomey is a trainer seriously going places, and while he hasn’t quite arrived on the big stage yet, I think that could change this week.
This colt is one of a few nice runners he has at the meeting which could help vault the County Tipperary handler to glory when the world is watching.
At around 6/1 with William Hill, I think Carmers is a knocking each-way bet against the Ballydoyle jolly.
Next up is the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (3.40pm) where CINDERELLA’S DREAM sets the standard in what looks a slightly weaker than usual renewal.
She’s been pretty well-found in the market and is no bigger than a best-price 15/8, but that looks more than fair for a top-rated, rock-solid filly with the best form in the book.
Her four-and-a-half length rout of seven rivals in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket was impressive, leaving two of today’s rivals, Running Lion and Elmalka, toiling in behind.
It’s hard to see either of those fillies turning that piece of form on its head and her biggest threat appears to be last year’s Irish 1000 Guineas winner Fallen Angel.
She’s a Classic-winning filly with only a pound to find on official ratings, but quick ground over a mile didn’t suit her in the Lockinge and it’s hard to see her doing any better in similar conditions here.
The Twomey-trained One Look is fairly priced and could be there to pick up the pieces, but she hasn’t shown a high enough level of form to trouble the selection.
Charlie Appleby is yet to win this race, but William Buick has, three times to be precise, and I expect Cinderella’s Dream to be a class above her opposition.
POINTERS WEDNESDAY
Carmers e/w 3.05pm Royal Ascot
Cinderella’s Dream 3.40pm Royal Ascot