The OBR deficit conundrum: Why all is not necessarily rosy in George Osborne’s fiscal garden December 2, 2015 The office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) finds a £27bn improvement in the public finances” is the message that many will have taken away from last week’s Autumn Statement and Spending Review. Combined with the deficit (PSNB) moving into surplus at the end of the forecast period, and the fall in total public spending as a [...]
A global carbon tax would create a vital incentive for businesses to work against climate change December 2, 2015 This week, world leaders, scientists, businesses and many others have converged on Paris for COP 21, the most significant international climate change conference since Copenhagen in 2009. Top of the agenda will be agreeing a new climate change agreement that stops long-term global temperatures from rising by more than 2°C, the threshold predicted [...]
Syria vote: Have the opponents of war in Syria been unfairly labelled as being weak on defence? December 2, 2015 Professor Michael Kerr, the director of the Middle East & Mediterranean studies programme at King's College London, says Yes There is no doubt that Islamic State (Isis) represents a significant threat to UK security. Its objective is to create instability and provoke a counter-terrorism response that damages Western interests in the Middle East. Bombing Isis [...]
Time to cut students from migration target December 1, 2015 For months, years even, a row has been brewing at the heart of government. It’s not about air strikes in Syria or tax credit reforms. It’s not about devolution or departmental spending cuts. It’s about immigration. Specifically, it concerns the question of whether international students should be counted in the official net migration figures. The [...]
The end of dreams: Why the EU is finally choosing reality over idealism December 1, 2015 European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker recently acknowledged that a two-speed – one might say two-tier – Europe is increasingly likely. This marks a significant break from the Barroso Commission, which sought to keep all member states on the same track towards “ever closer union.” Many, rightly, see this change of attitude as a response to [...]
Minority Game: What stock investors can learn from the failure of Black Friday December 1, 2015 Black Friday has come and gone, but the massive surge of shoppers which was anticipated in much of the media failed to materialise. Many retail outlets were quieter than a normal Friday. In contrast, internet shopping went wild. Amazon had its biggest ever day in the UK, selling over 7m items. Argos and John Lewis [...]
Heathrow airport expansion: There’s no need to make a stark choice between a third runway and the environment December 1, 2015 During the summer, the government made a commitment to announce a “final decision” on airport expansion by the end of this year. Since the office Christmas party season has already begun, that deadline is fast approaching. Yet in recent days, there have been reports of possible further delays. This would almost certainly cause investor [...]
With Labour divided on Syria, would losing the Oldham West by-election be the beginning of the end for Corbyn? December 1, 2015 Atul Hatwal, editor of Labour Uncut, says Yes At the General Election, Labour won Oldham West with a majority of almost 15,000. Labour should romp home – but instead the result is on a knife edge. Defeat, or even a narrow victory, would signal the beginning of the end for Jeremy Corbyn. Although he was [...]
The Fed will clear things up for Aberdeen and co. November 30, 2015 Aberdeen Asset Management boss Martin Gilbert was in a bullish mood yesterday, insisting that his firm posted "a great set of numbers considering emerging markets are so out of fashion”. Emerging markets did, indeed, fall out of fashion earlier in the year – largely accounting for the £12.7bn worth of outflows that Aberdeen racked up [...]
George Osborne’s Big Red Book is securing UK prosperity while Maoism gathers dust November 30, 2015 George Osborne set out last week how this government is fulfilling its manifesto promises: delivering financial security on the back of economic growth, and national security in an uncertain world. Coupled with plans to make markets work better for families and firms – like increasing competition so bills come down – he spoke to the [...]