Computer says YES: England tipped to win Euro 2024 by AI
Football’s coming home this summer according to AI-driven analysis, which says England have the best chance of winning Euro 2024.
Gareth Southgate’s team have an almost one-in-four likelihood of lifting the trophy, making them the favourites ahead of two-time winners France and hosts Germany.
The prediction is based on 10,000 simulations of the tournament carried out by data experts Sportradar using its AI-powered algorithm.
England lost in the final of the last Euros but are fancied to go one better this time, with Sportradar calculating they have a 24 per cent chance of winning.
France, who ended English hopes at the 2022 World Cup and went on to finish runners-up, are estimated to have an 18.1 probability of glory.
Germany are third favourites despite early exits at the last three major tournaments, with a 15.2 per cent chance, with 2016 winners Portugal fourth (10.5 per cent) and Spain fifth (9.3 per cent).
England favourites for Euro 2024 but Scotland rank outsiders
Scotland are among the biggest long-shots to win Euro 2024 in only their second major tournament appearance since 1996.
Steve Clarke’s men have been given just a 0.2 per cent chance of silverware, which works out as a probability of one in 500.
Only Romania, Slovakia, Albania, Slovenia and minnows Georgia are rated less likely to win the tournament, according to Sportradar.
Mbappe tipped to pip Kane to Golden Boot
France hotshot and new Real Madrid signing Kylian Mbappe is the most likely man to win the Golden Boot with an implied chance of 15.2 per cent.
Harry Kane is a close second, however, with the England captain deemed to have a 14.8 per cent probability of being top scorer at Euro 2024.
Sportradar’s AI model predicts it will take six goals to win the Golden Boot, with that a 31.4 per cent chance and five goals rated at 28 per cent.
It comes just under a week from the start of Euro 2024, which runs from 14 June to 14 July and is being held in Germany.
Euro 2024 chances: team-by-team guide
| TEAM: | TOURNAMENT WINNER: | REACH FINALS: | REACH QUARTER FINALS: | REACH TOP 8: | REACH KNOCK STAGE: |
| ENGLAND | 24.0% | 37.3% | 54.8% | 75.0% | 97.0% |
| FRANCE | 18.1% | 31.0% | 50.6% | 72.3% | 94.2% |
| GERMANY | 15.2% | 26.3% | 42.7% | 67.2% | 95.5% |
| PORTUGAL | 10.5% | 20.8% | 39.5% | 61.3% | 95.4% |
| SPAIN | 9.3% | 18.1% | 32.6% | 62.3% | 90.7% |
| ITALY | 5.3% | 11.9% | 25.1% | 53.4% | 85.7% |
| NETHERLANDS | 4.5% | 10.9% | 25.3% | 47.7% | 77.4% |
| BELGIUM | 4.4% | 10.4% | 23.5% | 49.9% | 90.7% |
| CROATIA | 1.8% | 5.4% | 13.5% | 36.1% | 70.8% |
| DENMARK | 1.4% | 4.5% | 12.2% | 29.1% | 70.8% |
| AUSTRIA | 0.9% | 3.1% | 9.9% | 25.6% | 55.1% |
| SWITZERLAND | 0.9% | 2.8% | 9.0% | 25.5% | 61.9% |
| TURKEY | 0.8% | 2.8% | 9.4% | 23.4% | 71.3% |
| UKRAINE | 0.8% | 2.9% | 9.5% | 26.7% | 72.4% |
| SERBIA | 0.5% | 2.2% | 7.2% | 21.1% | 59.4% |
| HUNGARY | 0.5% | 2.2% | 7.1% | 21.7% | 57.4% |
| POLAND | 0.3% | 1.1% | 4.7% | 15.5% | 39.0% |
| CZECHIA | 0.3% | 1.4% | 5.4% | 16.5% | 60.5% |
| SCOTLAND | 0.2% | 1.4% | 4.9% | 16.6% | 49.9% |
| ROMANIA | 0.2% | 1.2% | 4.9% | 18.0% | 60.2% |
| SLOVAKIA | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2.7% | 11.7% | 46.0% |
| ALBANIA | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 7.2% | 24.4% |
| SLOVENIA | 0.1% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 8.8% | 35.4% |
| GEORGIA | 0.0% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 7.7% | 38.9% |