Conference season has made one thing clear: Labour has already failed
Polling in the aftermath of Labour conference tells a brutal story of a party that has already failed, writes Brandon Lewis
Labour’s 2025 conference was meant to be a reset moment, a chance to rally its base and restore public confidence after a bruising year in the polls. Instead, all that was on show was how far the party has fallen and the polls have not given them any real bump.
At its annual gathering Labour looked more divided than ever, and strikingly out of touch. Just 18 months into the largest parliamentary majority in a generation, Andy Burnham’s open challenge to Sir Keir Starmer shows the party is already flirting with leadership change. That alone speaks volumes. Much is made of the Conservatives’ recent turnover in leaders, but it’s worth remembering David Cameron led from 2010 to 2016. Labour is showing signs of crisis after barely a year.
The signs have been steadily building. Angela Rayner’s departure after her taxes debacle and Peter Mandleson’s painful resignation, strike at the heart of a government that promised “decency” and “trust”. Starmer’s decision to publicly back them in light of the allegations, only to U-turn far too late, proves how poor his political instinct is.
The public has noticed. Polling in the aftermath tells a brutal story. No post-conference bump. Latest polls show Labour has dropped in support to just 20 per cent, whereas Reform has capitalised to reach 30 per cent. Meanwhile, the latest MRP models suggest Labour could lose dozens of marginal seats, many of them won just 14 months ago. If a general election were held tomorrow, Labour could fall to under 100 seats. Unheard of for a party so fresh into a new term of governance.
Labour’s 2024 pitch to the country rested on core pillars of competence, economic growth and delivery. Voters have received none of it. Growth remains stagnant, GDP has dropped by 0.4 per cent in under a year and business confidence has hit rock bottom.
Households aren’t faring any better. Millions have been dragged into higher tax brackets due to frozen thresholds. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, fiscal drag will raise an extra £40bn by 2028, disproportionately affecting middle earners. The response from Rachel Reeves? Raise taxes more. It couldn’t demonstrate a more out-of-touch government. The chief secretary to the Treasury once proudly claimed that “the adults are back in the room”. If so, where are they now?
Reform is not a government-in-waiting
Reform has jumped on the public’s frustration. Nigel Farage has turbocharged his party to the top of national polls, an astonishing feat for a political startup. But let’s not kid ourselves, right now Reform is not a government-in-waiting. It has no costed programmes, no experienced front bench and no realistic path to delivering its promises. However, their momentum matters because it exposes a deeper truth; millions of voters feel unheard, overtaxed and let down by the country’s leading political parties.
Recent resignations from the Conservative benches highlight this frustration. Danny Kruger, one of Reform’s newest members, made it clear that voters have been left with “Bigger government, social decline, lower wages, higher taxes and less of what ordinary people actually wanted.”
For the Conservatives, a route back still exists. Between Labour’s tax-and-spend instincts and Reform’s populist anger lies a neglected space, a serious commitment to economic responsibility and reform, which I have written about previously on these pages.
Some 42 per cent of the public believe we are taxing too high and spending too much on services and they are right.
Everywhere in government there is bloat and wasteful spending. The Labour government has borrowed £18bn alone in August 2025, a figure not seen since the midst of the pandemic. This out of control spending can only mean more tax rises and more punishment for working families and businesses come November.
Conservatives have the opportunity to reclaim a clear space outlining that they are the only ones who can deliver a smaller government that will focus on championing entrepreneurship and lowering taxes for the millions of families that are seeing their household wealth evaporate before their eyes.
Conference season has made it clear. Labour has already failed and Reform is not credible. The Conservatives must now make it front and centre that they are the party that will fight for people and their future.
Brandon Lewis is a former minister and Conservative party chairman