Could Starmer’s poll lead cost him votes?

It’s not Gaza or fiscal discipline – the real reason Labour is losing votes from its left flank is that it’s too far ahead. But, warns Emma Revell, Conservatives shouldn’t celebrate…

If you are of a centre-right persuasion, there is precious little comfort to be found from looking at the polls these days. The latest YouGov/Times poll last week had the Tories on just 19 per cent – matching the infamous low they hit in October 2022, during the death throes of the Liz Truss premiership. 

Yet despite these dire numbers, some Conservatives are taking comfort from reports that Labour is losing votes from its left flank.

It’s hard to blame them. Faced with what is – let’s be honest – an apocalyptically bad outlook, you can understand why any true blue supporter would seek to hoover up whatever crumbs of comfort they can find, no questions asked. 

According to polling experts, Labour has alienated a combination of Muslims and young progressive activists to such an extent that dozens of potential marginal gains and two presumed Labour holds – Bristol Central and Sheffield Hallam – are now at risk. 

The main reasons for this are fairly obvious. First, discomfort with the iron fiscal discipline that Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves is trying to impose on the Labour Party. Second, disappointment with the position Keir Starmer has taken on the conflict between Israel and Gaza. 

Add in a vacillating inability to answer questions like ‘what constitutes a woman?’ to the satisfaction of either potential Tory switchers or ideologically pure younger progressives, and you can begin to see the problem.

But there is another potential take on why some of the more liberal, environmentally minded voters Labour would ordinarily rely on may be voting for other parties: Labour is just too far ahead. 

It’s impossible to find a poll that doesn’t put them at least 15 points up, and they haven’t been behind in the polls at all since late 2021. Whether it’s YouGov’s latest MRP model putting Labour’s potential majority at over 150 seats or the internet’s favourite polling guru Sir John Curtice giving the Tories just a one per cent chance of winning the next election, you’d be hard pressed to find anyone realistically planning for someone other than Keir Starmer to be in Number 10 this time next year.

With so much certainty about the result – or as much certainly as you can have in British politics at the moment – there just isn’t as much need for many Labour voters to turn out for the red team (or so they think). If you’re the sort of left-winger who proudly proclaims ‘no Tories’ in your Tinder bio, you might be tempted by another option, because you’re confident the hated Conservatives are heading for a hammering regardless.

For example, if the top issue for you is the environment, and Labour’s decision to ditch their £28bn green spending plans feels like a betrayal, why not have a secret fling with the Greens in Bristol? Or why not channel the spirit of 2010 and bring Liberal Democrats back to Sheffield Hallam? 

If you happen to live in a more firmly held Labour seat – say you’re a London voter in Camberwell or Walthamstow with majorities of over 30,000 – our electoral system means you’re on even more solid ground. 

Perhaps, like Owen Jones, you miss the heady days of the Corbynite interregnum and find the whole process of taking politics seriously and preparing for government just too difficult and a lot less fun. You can quit the party and tear up your membership card all you like. You’re not risking a Conservative government and can show your displeasure with almost zero risk.

Of course, Labour will be wary of repeating the Conservatives’ mistakes in 2017, when complacency about poll leads meant some traditional Tories decided to cast a protest vote or sit it out, and Theresa May unexpectedly lost her majority.

However, a bit of promiscuity at the ballot box is unlikely to threaten Labour’s chances of forming a government in quite the same way.

Of course, it is still a problem, and could cause deeper cracks in the Labour coalition. This is why senior party figures anonymously brief their concerns to the media, warning about the idea that an indulgent vote for someone else will cost them seats. 

But this still shouldn’t be any comfort to the Conservatives. Maybe it means a 1997-style thrashing instead of electoral oblivion, but either way, a lot of Tories are going to be waking up with rather nasty hangovers on the morning after the next election night.  

At the end of the day, whether Labour is at risk of losing voters over environmental issues, its stance on Israel and Gaza, or simply because it can seemingly afford to, no great swathes are switching to the Conservatives. 

The result may well be a few seats here and there staying blue as a result of left-wing vote splitting, but this is going to be trivial in the grand scheme of things, on the current trajectory.  

Meanwhile, the Tories have Reform tempting away their core voters from the right flank, which could cost the Tories just as many seats, perhaps far more. With electoral oblivion of the scale being predicted by some, the idea your opponents might be losing a seat or two – and arguably becoming more mainstream in the process – should be cold comfort. 

Emma Revell is External Affairs Director at the Centre for Policy Studies