Election 2024: Number of Lib Dem MPs to return to pre-coalition levels, MRP poll projects
The Liberal Democrats are on course to win as many as 49 seats in the upcoming general election – a swing that could see them become the third largest party in the House of Commons, a new poll has suggested.
The forecast result for Sir Ed Davey’s party was made by pollsters at More in Common (MiC), working with the News Agents podcast, who also predicted that the party will unseat Chancellor Jeremy Hunt in Godalming and Ash.
It would mark a return to pre-2010 figures for the party, which saw 46, 52, 62, and 57 MPs elected in 1997, 2001, 2005 and 2010 respectively.
Following the 2010 Conservative and Lib Dem coalition government, this plummeted to just eight MPs in the 2015 election, 12 in 2017 and 11 in 2019.
But at this election, a boost in numbers could see them overtake the Scottish National Party (SNP) as the third largest party in the House of Commons, increasing their seat total four-fold on 2019, thanks to key ‘Blue Wall’ gains across Oxfordshire, Surrey and Somerset.
It comes as MiC also projected that the Conservatives are on course for their worst defeat in over a century, as Labour are set to win a majority of 162 seats.
Luke Tryl, MiC executive director, said: “The fact this projection showing the Conservatives barely holding 150 seats is one of the most favourable to the Conservatives shows how deep a hole the party finds itself in – with barely two weeks to go for them to change the dial.”
The poll, MiC’s second of the campaign, predicts Labour will win 406 seats on July 4, while the Conservatives are expected to hold just 155 seats, their lowest total in modern history.
While the SNP are projected to win 18 seats; Plaid Cymru two; and the Green Party one.
Ministers including defence secretary Grant Shapps, justice secretary Alex Chalk, and transport secretary Mark Harper, are all on course to lose their seats, the poll found.
Implied national vote share has Labour on 44 per cent, Conservatives on 28 per cent, Lib Dems on 11 per cent, Reform UK on eight per cent, Green Party on five per cent, and the SNP on three per cent.
Tryll added: “Labour looks set to inherit a historic majority while remaining largely undefined in the eyes of the electorate.
“While creating such a broad electoral coalition is a good problem to have in the short term, it points to potential difficulties in creating a governing agenda that unites such disparate tribes – especially when electoral cynicism is so high.”
The findings are based on voting intention data collected between May 22 and June 17, from more than 10,000 adults in Great Britain.