Events, dear boy, events: Starmer’s defence challenge could be his biggest opportunity
In July 2020, the then chief executive of the Environment Agency, Sir James Bevan, gave a speech to the Whitehall & Industry Group titled: ‘“Events, Dear Boy”: managing incidents before they become crises’.
He told listeners: “When Prime Minister Harold Macmillan was asked what was the greatest challenge for a statesman, he replied: ‘Events, dear boy, events’. The same is true for most leaders and organisations. Events happen. When they do a lot of things are at stake: lives, livelihoods, reputation.”
Bevan – and Macmillan – are both completely correct in their observations. Unexpected events are often underpriced in politics. From the financial crisis or the Covid-19 pandemic, to tragedies such as 9/11, to the current rollercoaster of Ukraine peace talks, they cannot be planned for in any great specificity, and often come to define political and historical eras.
It’s clear we are in the midst of some unexpected – but not entirely unforeseen – events at the moment, as the great tectonic plates of geopolitics appear to be shifting. What’s also evident is that this government – perhaps with another former British Prime Minister’s words in mind – has no intention of wasting what, so far, has proved to be a pretty good crisis for Sir Keir Starmer.
The former lawyer, barrister and director of public prosecutions, perhaps unsurprisingly, has been relatively unflappable amid testing diplomatic circumstances. His skillset seems to be useful in hammering out international agreements with the US, Europe and Ukraine.
David Wood, a criminal barrister at 25 Bedford Row Chambers, suggested, while the courtroom may be a world away from international negotiations, “at the core of success as a barrister is the ability to identify a winning strategy and persuade others to get behind it”.
He says: “A huge part of winning a case is founded on careful preparation and work done behind the scenes talking to other lawyers – and non-lawyers – to gain a position of strength.
“This necessarily includes working out how to handle those who will be inherently hostile to your own position. Working out what everyone’s red lines are and then identifying a workable compromise is a very important skill which legal practice requires you to hone.”
It’s still true that Starmer’s ponderous style has been a liability in other situations demanding a faster, or more dramatic, approach. His polling on the domestic front, despite something of a bounce in public support over defence spending, as Morning Wire and others have noted, remains an issue for Labour. In an age of dissatisfaction with incumbent administrations, Starmer made a series of missteps, and his growth agenda has so far failed to get going.
But the particular demands of this crisis over the Ukraine war, the Trump presidency, and the shifting sands of Europe’s security are undeniably suited to his temperament. Even previous consternation over the PM spending too much time abroad is now recast by some as wise forethought, or at least a sensible insurance policy.
Evie Aspinall, director of the British Foreign Policy Group (BFPG), says while the public’s response to Starmer is “part of a ‘rallying around the flag’ which often happens when there is a clear sense of external threat”, it is still linked to his specific actions. “Indeed, we see Starmer’s success internationally now being put in contrast to his challenges domestically in the eyes of the public,” she notes.
But perhaps the most relevant aspect of the government’s current crisis response, at least when it comes to domestic struggles, is the potential impact of higher defence spending on the quest for growth.
The question asked over and over again during the election campaign – which usually went frustratingly unanswered – was where exactly Labour hoped this promised, mystical growth would come from. Could defence spending prove to be – at least something of – an answer?
Starmer and defence secretary John Healey – and Rachel Reeves – will certainly hope so, and the government was quick to invite SMEs into No10 for talks on higher defence investment and a new innovation hub.
Addressing the Make UK conference in London on Tuesday, Reeves stressed: “I do want to make sure that as we spend more on defence, that that is used to support British jobs and British industries… I want to see that benefit the UK economy.”
It won’t just be the government benefitting, with AJ Bell’s Russ Mould observing “investors embraced defence stocks, making the sector one of the hot investment areas so far this year”. But this will take time to translate from shares and bonds into supplies and bullets.
However, military funding “can act as a stimulus for the economy, driving innovation, skills and infrastructure, particularly in areas and regions more involved in the defence pipeline,” Aspinall says.
But she warns: “Its biggest economic contribution, though, is in its deterrence of external aggression which would otherwise have significant economic ramifications.”
Recent events will have been challenging for any leader, no matter how at home on the world stage they appear. Starmer’s greatest challenge – if he can live up to it – may also just prove his greatest opportunity.