Exclusive: Labour overtake Tories as most trusted on defence, poll finds
Labour has overtaken the Conservatives as the party most trusted to manage the UK’s defence and national security – and Brits overwhelmingly back the plan to fund an increase in defence spending by raiding the international development budget.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party was chosen by 27 per cent of respondents compared to Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party on 26 per cent, when asked to choose between the two, according to the latest monthly Morning Wire Freshwater Strategy poll.
The government saw a whopping 13 point uplift in the public’s approval of their position on defence since last month – giving them a net lead of two per cent over the opposition.
It comes after Sir Keir led an emergency defence summit of European leaders, in the wake of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s confrontation with US President Donald Trump, and concerns over the implications for the NATO alliance and European security.
Starmer warned Europe it is “time to act” with the continent at a “crossroads in history” – as he urged a “coalition of the willing” to defend a peace settlement in Ukraine, while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen prepares to outline a plan to rearm Europe.
“Tomorrow, I will inform the member states through a letter about the rearm Europe plan,” she told journalists.
Defence spending
The Morning Wire Freshwater Strategy poll of UK voters follows the Prime Minister’s announcement that UK defence spending would increase from 2.3 per cent of GDP to 2.5 per cent by 2027, funded by a cut to cash for overseas aid.
Starmer also reclaimed his lead as preferred Prime Minister over Badenoch, securing 36 per cent backing, versus her 34 per cent, an increase of three points compared to February’s poll, and eight points since January, Freshwater found.
However, the Prime Minister maintained a net negative approval rate of -34, versus his opponent’s minus nine.
A majority of voters in the UK, 58 per cent, said they “support increasing the UK’s defence spending to three per cent of GDP”, the poll also found, while just one in four, or 25 per cent, were opposed. Just 17 per cent of respondents said they were unsure.
In apparent backing of the government’s direction, 60 per cent also said they supported upping defence spending to three per cent of GDP being funded “in-part by reducing the international aid budget”. 27 per cent of voters said they disagreed with the policy.
While there was slightly more support for increasing defence spending to three per cent of GDP “even if it meant higher taxes”, with 44 per cent of the public in favour, and 41 per cent against.
Freshwater also found a clear majority – 64 per cent – of the British population supported the government’s defence spending plan, with just 24 per cent opposed, and 12 per cent unsure.
Defence stocks surge
The FTSE 100 index rallied to an all-time high on Monday, bolstered by rocketing defence stocks in the UK and Europe, with BAE Systems rising by 17 per cent this morning.
Germany’s Rheinmetall also gained 14 per cent, with similar surges in France and Italy, as investors anticipated significant demand by European states amid fears the US could withdraw security guarantees from the continent.
Polling analysis
Director Dr Michael Turner said: “There has been a significant uptick in voter concerns about defence and national security, [of] six points since February, with voters switching strongly towards Starmer and Labor being best to manage that issue.
“In February, voters rated Badenoch and the Conservatives as best to manage by 11 points, [but] today there has been a 13 point shift towards Starmer and Labour who now have a slender two point lead.”
He added: “There is very strong support for the government’s defence spending plan, particularly when framed as being funded (in part) from a reduction in the UK’s international aid budget.
“A clear majority of voters – 52 per cent – say that they would prefer that defence spending is increased – but funded by cuts to the UK foreign aid budget.”
Freshwater Strategy interviewed 1,215 eligible voters in the UK, online between February 28 and March 2, 2025, and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 per cent.
The data is weighted to be representative of UK voters.