FA Cup final looks set to be low-scoring affair
CHELSEA vs. EVERTON
SATURDAY 3PM, ITV1 & SETANTA SPORTS 1
Goals have been in short supply in recent FA Cup finals and there is no reason to think that tomorrow’s clash between Chelsea and Everton will be any different. In fact, half of the last 14 finals have seen no more than one goal scored in regular time, with 11 featuring two goals or less.
Looking at the two sides closely and the argument for supporting a low-scoring game gathers pace. Everton have faced Big Four opposition 14 times in Premier League and FA Cup competition since 2008, and their 3-1 defeat at the Emirates last year is the only time there have been more than two goals. Interestingly, eight of those 14 matches saw one or fewer goals, as have all three of the Toffees’ encounters with Chelsea in the past 18 months.
Since the start of 2008, Chelsea have met top-eight, non-Big Four opposition 10 times and eight of those encounters finished with two or fewer goals, and half with no more than one. Of course, these two sides also met in a two-legged Carling Cup semi-final in 2008, where only a 90th minute own-goal by Joleon Lescott at Stamford Bridge preventing two further ‘under’ matches.
Therefore, I’ll be selling goals at 2.1 with Sporting Index as there looks to be little downside and I’m also going to have a crack at both sides to go in goalless at the break at 11/8 with Boylesports. That’s been the score in seven of the last 15 finals which suggests the price should be closer to evens.
The outright result looks really tricky to call and it will take a braver man than me to smash into Chelsea to win in 90 minutes at a best priced 1.8 on Betdaq. Since the 1992/93 cup final (the last to go to a replay) the higher-ranked side has kept 12 clean sheets in 15 finals, winning to nil on 10 of these occasions. Therefore, there is an argument to suggest that if you fancy Chelsea to win, then back them to do so 1-0 (best priced 6/1) and 2-0 (best priced 7/1). However, my only bet in that market will be a small bet on no goalscorer in the game at a whopping 9/1.
POINTERS…
0-0 at half-time at 11/8 with BoylesportsNo goalscorer at 9/1 on Betdaq
Sell total match goals at 2.1 with Sporting Index