From Trump to COP: A look ahead to the political year in 2025
After a whirlwind of a political year in 2024, with elections in the US, UK and across much of the globe, 2025 is already shaping up to be another momentous 12 months.
From the return of President Donald Trump to the White House in January, to the challenges ahead for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, to the future of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, to crucial climate agreements ahead of COP30 in the autumn, there’s a lot to brace for.
Ahead of the New Year, we take you through the key developments to watch out for.
US politics
2025 is set to be a historic year for one reason alone: Donald Trump’s inauguration and his return to the US presidency following his win against Democratic rival Kamala Harris.
The 2024 US elections saw a power shift to the Republican Party across the presidency, House and Senate, giving Trump a stronger base to deliver his legislative agenda.
Globally, Trump’s presidency will have wider ramifications across foreign relations, fraught or changing relationships with China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, as well as allies such as Europe and the UK, and global bodies such as the United Nations (UN).
Trump has vowed to end the war in Ukraine in a day, to impose tariffs on Chinese goods and restrict China’s ownership of US land and infrastructure, as well as cracking down on immigration into the US from Mexico and Latin America.
While on trade, the president-elect has pledged to enact a 25 per cent tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico on his first day in office, as well as higher tariffs on Chinese goods – including a reported 200 per cent tax on some car imports being under consideration.
But economists have warned that the impact of tariffs could be a cost to US consumers, and risk provoking global economic consequences, including for China, Germany and the UK.
UK politics
2025 also marks the start of the first full year of Keir Starmer’s Labour administration, after his election win in 2024, which will see him aim to get his government back on track.
The Prime Minister has faced a series of challenges after his victory, despite securing a historic majority, including economic difficulties, an unpopular Budget, and protests from farmers and family businesses following changes to inheritance tax (IHT).
Meanwhile, opposition leader Kemi Badenoch will be hoping to begin turning around the Conservative Party’s fortunes following their struggles at the ballot box in July. However, she has said specific policies will be a long time coming, and wants the party to fully analyse what went wrong.
Reform UK leader and Clacton-on-Sea MP Nigel Farage will also be hoping for another boost to his party at the local elections in May – the first opportunity for some voters to cast ballots in council races since the new government came into office.
UK political finance
Less of an event than the Budget, but crucial for funding public spending, is the government’s spending review.
In spring 2025, the Chancellor will set out how departments will be costed to deliver public services, as well as expectations for costs reform, savings and use of technology, over a three-year period.
Starmer’s key economic mission ahead of the election was for the UK to have the highest sustained economic growth in the G7 – which has since shifted to a pledge to improve living standards across the whole of the UK. Will he be able to deliver on either promise, when economic forecasts now see Britain falling behind the US, and coming in ahead of Europe?
Questions of political party funding will continue to swirl in 2025, after Tesla and X owner, and close Trump advisor Elon Musk, said he wanted to donate $100m to Reform UK.
Global elections
Presidential elections will be held in 2025 in Belarus, Ireland, Poland, Romania, while countries including Nigeria, Belize, Chile, Greenland, the Philippines and Singapore will hold general elections.
Closer to home, Germany will hold federal elections seven months early in February 2025, after the German coalition government recently collapsed. It comes amid the war in Ukraine which is increasing pressure on the economy which has been in recession for a year.
Canada is also anticipated to hold earlier elections, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau coming under pressure in the polls, and from his Conservative rival Pierre Poilievre.
Similarly, French President Emmanuel Macron is facing a similar crisis of public confidence – but has insisted he will remain in office until the end of his term in 2027.
Climate change
Finally, when it comes to climate change, 2025 is expected to be a vital year – and the hottest on record.
Scientists have warned that political turmoil could impact efforts to combat emissions, hit pollution targets and limit rising global temperatures.
Ahead of COP30 – the 30th UN Climate Change Conference – being hosted in Belém, Brazil, in November, activists will be urging world leaders to make solid commitments to tackling environmental issues, including matters of biodiversity and climate mitigation funding.