The City is awash with talk of an early general election
Every month since January 2025 we’ve run a nationwide survey of UK voters, with our polling partners Freshwater Strategy. The latest set of results, our 20th survey of voters’ attitudes, landed on Monday and I’ve been going through the data.
Here’s an interesting development: For 19 consecutive months we’ve asked voters whether they felt the country was heading in the right or wrong direction. In our latest survey the number of people who feel we’re going the wrong way has declined, while the number who think we’re on track as a nation has risen. Between January 2025 and July this year, the average percentage of voters dissatisfied with the UK’s direction of travel was 72 per cent. It had never been lower than 69 per cent. As of now, it’s fallen to 66 per cent.
The number of people who felt the country was going in the right direction has averaged just 20 per cent over the same period, never climbing higher than 24 per cent. It is now 29 per cent.
Of the 16 political leaders and frontbenchers whose approval ratings we track each month, Andy Burnham is now by far the most popular. With a net approval rating of +12 he’s the only politician whose favourables (42 per cent) are higher than his unfavourables (30 per cent). This isn’t bad after three weeks in the job. Not bad at all.
The question, of course, is whether this amounts to anything more than a sunny honeymoon period, but there’s little doubt that our new PM’s refreshing communication style combined with his well-honed political antenna is rewriting the political narrative.
Will it also change the electoral map? According to our tracking, Burnham’s personal popularity hasn’t yet dragged the Labour party’s poll ratings above Reform, but it seems to be only a matter of time. And speaking of Reform, Nigel Farage’s approval rating has tanked – down from minus 12 in July to minus 20 in August.
Polling results like this are the reason why one topic dominates City lunches in the sun: will Burnham call an early general election? Technically any date ahead of August 2029 would be early, but it seems to me that the case in favour of Burnham going to the country is strong and getting stronger. Apart from a favourable wind, his radical agenda requires its own mandate.
Will he really wait three years to seek one?