The Burnham bounce won’t last unless Brits get better off
Andy Burnham’s approval ratings are soaring but Labour’s overall vote has only moved moderately. The real test will be the Budget, says Matthew Lesh
Andy Burnham has undoubtedly had a significantly stronger start to his premiership than Keir Starmer. Just two years ago, the government got off to a rotten beginning by signalling tax rises were on their way and restricting the winter fuel allowance.
Burnham has started with the niceties: a plan to end rough sleeping, a £2 cap on bus fares, and the VAT cut on electricity bills, along with a symbolic ‘Number 10 North’ office. These policies have been communicated with a gusto that Starmer could never match.
The latest Morning Wire / Freshwater Strategy Poll shows that Burnham’s approach has significantly shifted the public’s perceptions of our political leaders, but whether this effect is permanent and the ultimate impact on Labour’s vote is far from certain.
The Prime Minister’s approval rating has moved from −40 under Starmer in July to +12 under Burnham in August. Burnham is preferred as Prime Minister over Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch. Farage, facing scandal allegations, is down 12 points on personal approval to −20. Badenoch herself is down three points to +4. Labour is also now regarded as best placed to manage 11 of the 15 tracked issues and is level with Reform on crime, a significant month-on-month improvement. Labour has even taken back the electorate’s leading priority, inflation and the cost of living.
Burnham is the new kid on the block
The arrival of a new Labour leader has not merely lifted Labour; it has depressed the standing of the alternatives, as voters reassess their options. Burnham is benefiting from being the newest kid on the block, absorbing some of the anti-establishment sentiment that was driving Farage’s popularity. Taken together, these are the biggest changes in the ratings of political leaders since this series began at the start of last year.
Labour’s vote, however, has only moved moderately. Reform still leads on 26 per cent, albeit down three points, while the Conservatives (up two points) and Labour (up three points) are both level on 23 per cent. In other words, Labour’s brand is still far weaker than the Prime Minister’s, with the public not yet quite sure he can deliver. Voters are willing to listen, but will need to take a better look before changing how they vote. Notably, over two-thirds of Brits (67 per cent) don’t have confidence in the government’s plan to achieve economic growth. Similar numbers (66 per cent) still believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, even if that is down seven points since last month.
The trouble for Burnham is that he’s done the ‘easy’ part: removing a deeply unpopular leader, delivering some rhetorical hope that things could begin to move in a different direction. But higher expectations are a tricky business; they must be met or otherwise will simply feed the disappointment and anger that has characterised British politics over the last decade.
The proof in Burnham’s approach will likely come in just a few months’ time in the Budget at the end of October. That will mark the end of Burnham’s ability to make positive indications and force the government to put down on paper its actual priorities. The mixture of rising gilt yields, along with various unfunded promises, means he is thought to be starting from a fiscal hole of at least £22bn. In that context, he will have to annoy pretty much everyone through some mixture of not spending enough to fulfil backbench desires and increasing taxes on the private sector. Burnham will then also, around the same time, need to be setting out his ’10 year plan’, including a set of policies that actually gets the economy growing. A more charismatic leader won’t mean much if people don’t actually begin to feel better off.
Matthew Lesh is a Director at Freshwater Strategy