General Election 2019: Get ready for the populist onslaught
Parliament might have blocked the Prime Minister’s repeated efforts to go to the polls but everyone in Westminster is gearing up for a pre-Christmas election.
Even ministers who still claim their top priority is to “Get Brexit Done” are unambiguously positioning themselves for a snap vote. The working assumption is that a General Election will take place on 28 November or – increasingly likely – 12 December. And if you thought it got nasty before, this time around things could spiral even further out of normal territory.
The language of surrender and betrayal that has become so common in Westminster will spill out into the campaign trail. Privately, and sometimes not so privately, Tory MPs are unhappy with the tone of Downing Street’s bullish briefing operation.
“It wouldn’t be my choice, but it plays well in my constituency,” one such MP tells Morning Wire, referring to the PM’s use of the phrase “Surrender Act” to describe the law requiring him to seek a Brexit extension. A second adds: “It might prove to be genius, but we just won’t know until it’s too late. There is a darker mood… but that kind of simple message worked for Vote Leave.”
Assume the position
It’s not just “surrender” that has leapt into the political consciousness. The messaging from both Conservatives and Labour shows right and left will be positioning themselves as the party of “the people” – in Labour’s case against “privilege” and for the Tories it’s in contrast to “parliament”. The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, continue to plug away with calls for a “people’s vote”, while the Brexit Party is adopting ‘a plague on both their houses’ approach.
Some Conservatives actively support Johnson’s new, more combative approach as shaking things up. “I’m a radical,” shrugs one longstanding eurosceptic MP, who was recently knighted for his services. But other Tory MPs fear Johnson’s naked populism is as “toxic” as it is short term.
“If you like an anti-establishment message, who are you going to vote for? Not the Conservatives,” said one.
With “Get Brexit Done” plastered all over the Conservative conference, it is clear what other message Team Johnson will be taking into an election. Downing Street are relaxed about relinquishing Remain votes, expecting them to be split by Labour – whose threat has been somewhat neutered by its lack of clarity on Brexit – and by the Liberal Democrats.
Multi-party politics
But increasingly the UK appears to be entering a four-party world, with the Tories gaining around a third of the votes, Labour and Lib Dems level pegging at around 22 per cent each, and Brexit Party snapping at the heels with 10 to 12 per cent. It is that last party which is causing concern.
“Dominic Cummings’ strategy is pretty clear: they are writing off Scotland, most of London and some of the outer rim and the immediate commuter belt,” explains Cicero boss Iain Anderson. “They are going after blue collar workers, but that only works if we have left on 31 October. If we haven’t left, the big problem will be Nigel Farage stomping around.”
However, with at least one Cabinet minister admitting a deal is now virtually impossible, that is precisely the reason for the Get Brexit Done slogan. Alongside its “People vs Parliament” message, Team Johnson will enter a campaign able to shift the blame for failing to leave squarely onto someone else’s shoulders. This conference was, in part, about covering the Prime Minister’s back when he has to face the music from those who were expecting a Halloween Brexit, with or without a deal.
Muddy waters
But that was what was happening for all to see. Increasingly, parties are taking an approach that muddies the waters. Corbyn and the Labour front bench have repeatedly attacked the “mainstream media” over supposed news blackouts, and both parties have cut journalists out of the loop entirely, speaking directly – and without challenge or scrutiny – to their party faithful.
“I am really concerned about this election,” says Will Moy of independent fact-checking organisation Full Fact. “We should be afraid about what happens when democracy is not scrutinised properly, when parts of the campaign are not visible and independent journalism is cut out of parties’ campaigns.”
To take a recent example, Moy’s organisation identified a Facebook post from the Conservatives in which a BBC headline about schools funding had been changed, using a figure that the article itself said was inaccurate. In a world where people scroll through without clicking, headlines are what matters, Moy believes. And this is just the tip of the iceberg.
“What we are seeing more and more is parties making different arguments to different voters – using targeted online advertising to do it,” he explains. Micro-targeting is used by everyone from retailers to political candidates, but Moy believes conventions are being changed more quickly than the law can keep up with. Despite calls from the DCMS Select Committee for emergency legislation, no response has been forthcoming.
Hey big spender
Other experts warn that even they are no longer able to assess what parties are putting into the public sphere. Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, suggests the pledges made during conference season are “unsustainable” at best.
“At the moment the Prime Minister appears to be promising three impossible things before breakfast,” he says. “They are promising all things to all people… Of course, it’s very easy to put out something which looks very good on social media. There is that old saying ‘a lie is halfway around the world before the truth gets its boots on’ – it feels more and more relevant these days.”
So where does that all leave us? Labour and the Conservatives are increasingly coalescing around the same positions – spending big, promising to represent the people. But as Moy says: “Neither [party] puts out an honest set of choices… they’re not engaging with reality.”
The reality is that the next election will be a proxy second referendum bur far from settling an argument it could end up with the country – and parliament – more divided than ever before.