Government’s vaccine bounce comes to an end as public opinion shifts

New polling suggests the vaccine bounce in the polls has ended for prime minister Boris Johnson and his government, as Labour support slowly ticks up.

Johnson’s net favourability score has fallen after he and his party experienced a boost in support in May polls, according to YouGov.

The UK’s successful rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine was correlated with a boost at local elections earlier this year, as the party picked up almost 100 council seat in the so-called the so-called Red Wall in the North.

In May, YouGov polls placed Johnson’s net favourability at +1. This has now fallen to -14 in July.

In the same time period, the Conservatives’ 20 point lead over Labour narrowed to 11 points. Britons now disapprove of the government by 49 per cent to 32 per cent.

Polling paints a brighter picture for Labour. While the party’s rating has generally held steady, Keir Starmer’s personal approval rating has rallied by 10 points since it hit an all-time low of -48 in May.

After the Conservatives’ successful election runs in the North, the party showed signs of struggle in Southern heartlands. The party then suffered shock defeats by the Liberal Democrats in Chesham and Amersham and Labour in the nail-biter Batley and Spen by-election.

The Conservative party co-chair said the resignation of former health secretary Matt Hancock came up on the doorstep in the Batley and Spen by-election and likely cost them votes.

Amanda Milling said there were a “whole load of issues that affected our campaign” and that Hancock “was something that came up on the doorstep, I have to be honest about that”.

Hancock resigned last month after it was reported that he had been having an office affair with his aide Gina Coladangelo, while he had simultaneously banned people from different households hugging. 

“We had some issues over the weekend in terms of what happened,” Milling said. 

“Matt resigned, that was the right thing to do. But governing parties don’t gain by-elections.”