House sales rise in summer, but will property tax rumours kill confidence?
The UK housing market has proved remarkably resilient this year despite significant pressures, with sales on track to match 2022 highs.
The number of UK residential transactions in July was 95,580, four per cent higher than July 2024 and one per cent higher than June 2025, according to the latest data from HMRC.
The market is on track for five per cent more sales year on year in 2025, at 1.15m.
“Resilient transaction numbers reflect what we have been seeing in our offices – buyers and sellers are negotiating hard but the overwhelming majority of agreed sales are proceeding to completion,” Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, said.
The end of the stamp duty holiday boosted activity at the start of the year as buyers rushed to avoid the April deadline, while a series of interest rate cuts have lowered the cost of mortgages.
“Five interest rate reductions in the past year have provided much needed-stimulus to the market, boosting confidence and activity,” Jason Tebb, President of OnTheMarket, said.
Property tax could ‘kill the Autumn market’
Leaf, however, warned that homeowners face “new worries” as we head into the Autumn.
“Early signs of speculation about tax increases in the Budget is compromising confidence among some… We may see a pause rather than the ‘stop’ button pressed at least until the uncertainty lifts a little.”
Rumours have been swirling in Westminster about a variety of property tax changes Rachel Reeves might introduce in this Autumn’s – or further down the line – in an attempt to plug a £40bn gap in the nation’s finances while overhauling a complex system of levies and charges.
The Treasury is reportedly looking into a range of options, including a national property tax on the sale of homes, a local annual property tax based on property values, and an introduction of capital gains tax on the sale of homes over £1.5m.
Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, agreed that a resilient summer market may give way to caution later in the year.
“The caveat to [high transaction levels] is whether capital gains tax on primary residences, national insurance on rental income and a Mansion Tax will kill the autumn market as vendors and buyers opt to wait and see,” Reynolds said.
Nick Leeming, Chairman of Jackson-Stops, said that while proposals remain hypothetical, they risk “unintended consequences” if not carefully designed.
“Many older homeowners are asset-rich but cash-poor and further tax barriers could discourage downsizing and reduce market mobility; the very opposite of what the market needs.
“There is broad consensus across the property industry that a step-change is needed. However, this should aim for a balanced approach to reduce friction and support movement within the market,” Leeming said.