How the Conservatives can become the party of millennials like me
Millennials make up the largest age cohort in many of the areas where the Conservatives need to shore up support. To win us back the Tories need answers on the cost of living, housing and tax, says Jamila Robertson
Millennials are often given a hard rap – scoffed at as snowflakes by Boomers, and as Boomers by Gen Z. But according to research by think tank, Onward, ahead of the 2024 general election, millennials were the largest age cohort in 51 per cent of constituencies and were in the majority in the areas the Conservatives needed to shore up their support.
To win over millennials in the next general election, political parties will need answers on: adult social care (for ageing family members with care needs), SMEs (for those with businesses, or looking to start one), childcare costs and housing; but the most pertinent policy area? Tax.
Let’s start locally. You may have seen the expletive video of millennial anti-hero, Jay from the Inbetweeners, enraged by a new garden waste collection charge, as his council tax bill rises and standards continue to fall. When a council is well-run, its value is felt. However in many cases, we see ideology superseding delivery. Bin collections are downgraded to fortnightly, under the guise that recycling and food waste are the moral preference. With the spending review extending the powers of councils to increase council tax by five per cent every year for the next three years; 65 per cent of council budgets spent on adult social care; and 9-54 per cent of council tax budgets spent on waste collection, it seems the squeeze on council tax-paying residents continues. And don’t even think about moving, because, as many wanting to buy a new home will know, following the Autumn Budget, stamp duty for second homes is up by two per cent and the nil rate threshold has been halved from £250,000 to £125,000 – a blow for first-time buyers and home movers.
Bad tax
Stamp duty is a bad tax, not simply because most people want to pay less tax – apart from millionaire left-wingers who broadcast their virtue on the BBC by proclaiming they would love to be taxed more. (Last time I checked, HMRC is open to donations link here for those chomping at the bit). The reason it is a bad tax is it prevents people from moving, most notably downsizers. Increasing stamp duty simply means that retirees will stay in their four bedroom houses depriving young families of the option to upgrade and denying first-time-buyers the opportunity to move into their starter homes. In short, it blocks the chain.
Then there’s the stealth tax that is the freezing of income tax thresholds. In response to the whopping Covid bill, income tax thresholds were frozen in the 2021 Budget until April 2026, and the additional rate threshold was slashed from £150,000 to £125,140. Sadly this deadline was extended to April 2028. This means that today income tax thresholds remain stuck at the 2021/22 levels of £12,570 for the personal allowance and £50,270 for the Higher Rate. According to the OBR, if unfrozen, today’s personal allowance would be £15,171 and the higher rate would be £60,673.
If unfrozen, today’s personal allowance would be £15,171 and the higher rate would be £60,673. Conservatives should make a punchy manifesto pledge to get back to these levels
In last Autumn’s Budget, the government committed to the end date of 2028, and confirmed that unfrozen thresholds would rise in line with inflation. Presumably Labour wants to get inflation back down to two per cent where it was when the Conservatives left office. If so, the personal allowance will be: £12,821.40 and the 40 per cent rate will be: £51,275.40. This is a long way from where they would have been without freezes. A punchy ambition in a Conservative manifesto to get as close to the April 2026 income tax rates of £62,189 and a £15,550 personal allowance would be a game changer for many – and assist those who try to keep their salaries below the threshold. Yes, the government could come up with more taxpayer-funded schemes and ‘plans for change’, or it could just tax people less so they have more disposable income to pay for things themselves. This is the Conservative approach and the argument it needs to make to a new generation of voters.
The OBR estimates that the income tax freeze extension (2026-28) will raise £4.4bn. Savings in welfare, the NHS, Quangos and the many other nooks and crannies in a bloated state wilfully wasting taxpayers’ hard-earned cash, would be the obvious places to start. Although, with news this week that Rachel Reeves has blown another £50bn hole in the public finances, this feels some way off.
And lastly, there’s housing. The Conservatives have shown they are taking this seriously by selecting Sir James Cleverley as the new shadow secretary of state. While Labour talked a good game on this and were lauded by many on the right for their Planning and Infrastructure Bill, they have already made monumental concessions to environmental lobbyists with amendment NC14. Consequently, the Conservatives will need to be the party that builds, because it makes no sense to say we are the party of homeownership but not of house building. It must be robust in its offer for the millennial generation and break the Labour/Lib-Dem narrative that only the wealthy want to be well-off.
If you speak with any 20, or 30-something across the country, they want success, a nice home, and a comfortable life. Most people do.
The Conservatives have always been the party of opportunity for the ambitious majority, it just needs to start speaking to them again.
Jamila Robertson is an entrepreneur and political commentator