If Reeves can’t cut tax, she could at least make it more competitive
The UK ranks 32 out of 38 OECD countries for tax competitiveness. Reeves must not make it worse at the upcoming Budget, says Sophie Dworetzsky
As the forthcoming Budget is less than a month away, speculation as to what personal tax changes – and rises – it may bring, is becoming ever more intense. With a deficit of £30bn to fill and especially gloomy figures from the OBR last week, it is widely assumed that tax rises will form a significant part of the story of the Budget.
After the Autumn 2024 Budget in which, seismically, the centuries old remittance basis of taxation was abolished as of April 2025, and an entirely new regime for inheritance tax (IHT) was introduced, once again personal tax rises are fully expected. Suggestions include an exit tax, a wealth tax, a so-called mansion tax (which seems disingenuous to say the least in areas such as London), further increases in capital gains tax and further changes to inheritance tax. While much has been said about these and other possible tax rises, it would seem rather more rational and effective for revenue raising purposes to consider the tax competitiveness of the UK.
We live an in era of increasing tax competition and starkly, in the Tax Foundation’s Center for Global Tax Policy analysis, which ranks 38 OECD member countries on tax competitiveness, the UK ranks 32 out of 38. Further piecemeal tinkering with capital taxes risks seeing the UK ranked lower in further studies.
It is notable that the UK ranks higher than countries including Italy and Spain. Notwithstanding the fact that many formerly resident non-domiciled taxpayers have relocated to Italy in light of the benefits of the flat tax regime for those who have not been Italian resident for at least nine of the 10 years prior to relocating, and who assume Italian residence. However, one cannot take comfort from ranking higher than six other OECD countries, and rather it is to be hoped the UK seeks to become a more attractive jurisdiction for wealthy individuals to base themselves in.
Time for a rethink
What is needed is a rethink and an acknowledgement that wealth creators have left since the prior Budget, and that people are internationally mobile and fleet of foot. If we wish to have a thriving economy and country which is welcoming to wealth creators and, by definition, the wealth they create, we need to first reduce instability and cease endless tax policy changes, second ensure we encourage people to establish themselves in the UK, and third ensure people wish to remain in the UK.
The foreign income and gains regime, which exempts offshore income and gains from UK tax for the first four years of residence, offers little incentive for long-term commitment. Combined with the catastrophic imposition of IHT on worldwide assets after someone has been resident for 10 years, this actively discourages international wealth creators from establishing enduring ties to the UK. Rumours of further changes to IHT and Capital Gains Tax (CGT) add to the impression of instability and lead to a lack of long-term economic activity. Especially troubling are suggestions that an exit tax may be introduced. While some other countries do have exit taxes, the current suggestion adds to the feeling of uncertainty and further deters people who may otherwise consider coming to the UK.
The suggestion of a mansion tax is particularly concerning in relation to properties in London. The suggestion appears to be that a one per cent tax on value above £2m would be applied annually. This does not appear to be on the net value so that a mortgage, for example, would not reduce the value. Further, there does not appear to be a suggestion of a ‘London weighting’. This latter point is especially problematic given the meaningfully greater cost of London properties compared to the rest of the UK. It seems very likely that, as with an exit tax, rather than stimulating economic activity, any mansion tax in this vein would deter activity as well as investment in a huge range of London property. Given that London has historically been a hub attracting wealth creators to work and make their home here, a mansion tax seems short sighted.
It is to be hoped that the OBR’s gloomy figures will serve as a clarion call to review the entire approach to capital taxation in the UK and ensure it encourages wealth creation and transfer. If real revenue is needed, as it clearly is, the news that potential across-the-board rises to income tax are being considered is welcome evidence of the start of a rational approach. Let us hope we indeed see a rational strategy reflected in the Budget that seeks to make the UK rather more tax competitive.
Sophie Dworetzsky is head of wealth planning UK at Lombard Odier Group