Labour voters are suffering from buyers’ remorse
32 per cent of those who voted Labour in 2024 say that they regret voting the way that they did at the last General Election, compared to just 15 per cent of all voters, according to the latest Morning Wire/Freshwater Strategy Poll, says Matthew Lesh
Even the Chancellor’s harshest critics must have felt a flicker of sympathy as tears slid down her cheeks during Prime Minister’s Questions last week. It had been a torrid few days for Rachel Reeves, who was compelled to abandon welfare reforms following a sizeable backbench rebellion. In many ways, the emotionally-charged moment marked a suitably tragic finale to the government’s first year.
Today’s Morning Wire / Freshwater Strategy Poll delivers the public’s scorecard on the last 12 months of Labour rule, and it makes for similarly grim reading on Downing Street.
A majority of voters (55 per cent) now believe that Reeves should resign as Chancellor, a damning indictment on the government’s economic strategy. The Prime Minister initially declined to guarantee the Chancellor’s position, contributing to a spike in gilt yields. Number 10 later reverse-ferreted, confirming that she has the Prime Minister’s full support and will remain in post until the next election.
Whether that position holds remains to be seen. Replacing an unpopular Chancellor to salvage the government could still be a useful reset moment. But, as Liz Truss discovered in the aftermath of Kwasi Kwarteng’s dismissal, a Prime Minister’s fate is often inseparable from that of their Chancellor. Starmer and Reeves have been attached at the hip on policy, so it will be difficult to explain why she should go and he should not.
Labour came to office in a wave of hope for ‘change,’ a belief that something could be better. There was genuine goodwill among the public and in the City. They were given a thumping majority. Today, few are impressed by what the government has achieved or its approach to key issues. Starmer’s supposed pragmatism has proven far from inspiring or effective.
Broken promises
Almost two-thirds of voters (65 per cent) believe that Labour has failed to live up to the promises it made in 2024. Few feel better off (15 per cent) than a year ago, and most believe Labour have done a poor job (61 per cent). A majority believe the government has done a poor job across policy areas, from the NHS (51 per cent) and the economy (63 per cent) through to immigration (65 per cent) and benefits (66 per cent).
Labour voters from the last election are twice as likely to express buyers’ remorse, that is, 32 per cent of those who voted Labour in 2024 say that they regret voting the way that they did at the last General Election, compared to just 15 per cent of all voters. They are divided in their ratings of the government’s performance, with 36 per cent rating it as good, 30 per cent saying it is average, and 34 per cent saying it is poor.
The biggest beneficiaries of the disappointment are not the Tories, who remain shackled by their performance over the previous 14 years. Instead, the public is desperately searching for something different, with an increasing number putting their hopes in Nigel Farage’s Reform Party, now polling at 31 per cent. Labour and the Conservatives are far behind, at 23 per cent and 19 per cent respectively.
There are a few glimmers of hope in today’s poll for the government. Farage’s personal rating has slipped slightly, although he remains ahead of Badenoch and Starmer. And while the overall economic outlook appears poor, there’s a tad more optimism than last month for people’s personal finances (up four points to 26 per cent).
However, looking ahead for the government, matters are looking tricky. There is an ongoing tension between Labour backbenchers, who want to see public spending grow and are pushing for measures such as wealth taxes, and the broader public, who are feeling squeezed. Last week’s welfare reversal has opened a £5bn annual fiscal hole. A clear majority of voters (59 per cent) say that the funding gap should be addressed by reducing government spending in other areas, rather than through higher taxes (17 per cent) or increased borrowing (12 per cent).
One year into office, the government faces a daunting road ahead. It must rein in public spending amid relentless demands for more, pursue reforms that genuinely deliver growth and prosperity, and rebuild public trust with a clear vision and purpose. Though the next election remains some years off, meeting these challenges will likely require a markedly different approach.
Matthew Lesh is country manager at Freshwater Strategy