Labour’s Magnificent Seven just made a no-deal Brexit more likely

I am old enough to recall the “Gang of Four” in the eighties, when Roy Jenkins, David Owen, Shirley Williams and Bill Rogers left Labour to set up the Social Democratic Party.

We know that all ended acrimoniously, with a reverse takeover by David Steel’s Liberal Party that created the Liberal Democrats.

This week, we have the not-so-Magnificent Seven Labour MPs, who have torn up their party membership cards to form an Independent Group in the House of Commons.

They claim at the moment that they are not creating a rival party, so they are already getting off to a bad start by deceiving the public. That’s really not a good look.

A number of justifiable grievances were lain at the door of the Labour leadership, including the party’s toxic and dogmatic culture and its refusal to confront the worsening problem of antisemitism.

But these are not individualistic independent-minded MPs going separate ways – after all, they have resigned together haven’t they?

No, they are more dog than cat, pack animals that will vote together, support each other, and present a common platform – pretty much a party just waiting to agree a name and draft a constitution (that everybody will inevitably argue over).

There is an expectation that more Labour MPs might drift over to them, and perhaps a handful of Conservatives, including a minister, too.

What then can bind MPs with such disparate origins? Why, Brexit of course, or rather a zealous opposition to it.

In making their leap, the seven – and any who follow them – reveal that they have been frauds all along.

Let us remember that all candidates from the Labour and Conservative parties stood in the last election on manifestos that respected the outcome of the 2016 referendum and pledged that they would deliver it in a manner that meant leaving the EU’s Single Market and customs union.

The two parties also said that they would end freedom of movement into the UK of EU nationals and the jurisdiction over our own courts of the European Court of Justice.

That was what the seven told their electorates they would do. But no sooner did they return to Westminster than they were working against those pledges.

We know, because they have told us many times and voted in parliament accordingly, that they want to effectively reverse the result of the largest democratic decision in the UK since universal suffrage was achieved. That’s not a very good look either.

Just look at how this tribe of anti-Brexit MPs has responded to the news that Honda is to close its Swindon factory and repatriate all European manufacturing (including production in Turkey) back to Japan.

No matter how often Honda executives say otherwise, the chorus of those claiming that the carmaker’s decision to is because of Brexit just keeps getting louder.

Anyone can see that the car industry is in a period of flux as it comes to terms with falling demand on the European continent and the withdrawal of diesel models – both of which are a direct result of EU economic and regulatory decisions.

In addition, the EU-Japan free trade agreement that will phase out tariffs on Japanese car imports makes it unnecessary for manufacturers like Honda to assemble cars in the EU.

Whatever the Remainer MPs might like you to believe, Swindon is collateral damage to that free trade agreement. It’s what you might call an unintended consequence.

And this week has been full of potential for unintended consequences. For with the defection of these former Labour MPs, there is a very strong likelihood that the Labour vote will be split in future elections.

If the seven seek reelection (and I am sure most will) and field other candidates across the country – presenting a centrist Blairite-without Blair outlook – then Labour will undoubtedly lose votes and seats.

The usurpers might not win, but they will probably bleed enough votes from Labour to let Conservatives come through the middle and take some of those seats.

Thus we have the sweet irony that the reverse-Brexit party led by opponents of a no-deal outcome will make the election of Jeremy Corbyn far less likely.

With such a scenario ahead of them, Conservative MPs might now make the calculation that, with Labour so bitterly divided and unelectable, they can vote down Theresa May’s withdrawal deal and move to a managed WTO exit without risking putting Corbyn in Downing Street.

For the same reason, the Labour split makes the end of May’s tenure as Prime Minister even more certain – just as soon as the Tory MPs are able to bring back and this time pass a motion of no-confidence.

Anti-Brexit independent MPs really should be careful what they wish for.