Local elections 2026: who will win in Hillingdon Council?
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The Conservatives have run Hillingdon since 2006 but their majority is slipping. Reform is targeting the Leave-voting area hard, a 4.99 per cent council tax rise is biting, and a £65m Heathrow-linked funding gap is straining local services. No overall control seems to be a real possibility.
Voters in Hillingdon face a disrupted trip to the polls this May following the death of Reform UK candidate Shaun Cooling.
While 20 wards will vote as planned on Thursday 7 May, the contest for Hillingdon West has been deferred to Thursday 18 June. The majority of voters will find out who represents them in results expected by around 4pm on the 8th May.
Incumbent Conservative councillors Adam Bennett and Reeta Chamdal will remain in their posts until the summer poll, while candidate nominations for the ward are set to reopen on 13 May.
The Conservatives have controlled the borough since 2006, but the 2022 elections saw their majority slip.
Boundary changes reduced the council from 65 to 53 seats, leaving the Tories with 30 and Labour with 23.
Since then, the opposition has fragmented, with five Labour councillors breaking away to form the Hayes Independent Party, while another defected to the Greens.
Tax hikes and the Heathrow squeeze
Local finances are under significant strain, with the council approving a 4.99 per cent tax hike for the 2026/27 financial year.
This sets the Band D rate at £2,045.46 – an increase of approximately £1.40 per week.
Cabinet member Eddie Lavery has blamed “tough financial pressures” on a 10 per cent population boom over the last decade, which has pushed social care and housing demand to its limit.
The borough also faces a unique ‘Heathrow tax’.Hillingdon claims that under-funding for asylum and immigration costs linked to the airport has created a multi-million-pound burden for local taxpayers.
While a recent Whitehall review acknowledged the borough has been under-resourced, the full funding uplift is phased, leaving a £65m shortfall over the next two years.
Battle of the borough
Hillingdon’s history as a ‘leave-voting’ area in 2016 has made it a prime target for Reform UK.
Professor Tony Travers of the LSE predicts significant gains for Nigel Farage’s party, suggesting the council could fall into “no overall control” with the Conservatives, Labour, and Reform all holding territory.
The threat of a Reform surge has triggered a desperate uniparty response.
A Conservative campaign leaflet recently surfaced featuring an endorsement from David Bond, a former Labour Mayor of Ealing, urging residents to vote Tory to block Reform.
Laila Cunningham, Reform’s London mayoral candidate and a former Conservative councillor, dismissed the tactic as a “self-serving cartel” fighting for survival.
Morning Wire is previewing local election votes taking place in every London borough. Click here for a full overview of May 7.