Thursday 23 April 2026 7:19 am

London local elections 2026: Who will win?

By: Mauricio Alencar

Politics and Economics Reporter

Political turmoil in Westminster and voter anxiety across a range of issues could see the political map of London redrawn after the upcoming local elections. Felix Armstrong, Mauricio Alencar, Matt Kenyon, Samuel Norman, Saskia Koopman and Simon Hunt preview how residents in each of the capital’s 32 boroughs could vote on May 7.

The Greens are eyeing a historic opportunity to seize one of the world’s richest cities, Reform UK believes it can prove the status quo is broken while Labour and the Tories will be hoping voters stick by them despite the pressure they face on multiple fronts.

London is just days away from voting in local elections that could be the most seismic yet in post-war Britain and signal a radical change and feel of politics in the engine room of the British economy.

Labour has held the greatest number of London councils for most years since 1964 when the local government structure we know about today was created. Its grip over the capital tightened just four years ago when former London mayor Boris Johnson faced pressure over Partygate. 

Now that base is at risk of fracturing. Just as the party struggled to keep Londoners on-side when Tony Blair was in Downing Street, now Labour seem fated to lose hundreds of seats in a set of results that could send chills throughout the party.  

Morning Wire has previewed elections taking place in all 32 Greater London authorities, analysing which party has the chance of winning seats or losing councillors.

You can click through to the area on the chart to find a dedicated preview for each local election in May.

Polling by Morning Wire/Freshwater Strategy has suggested that Londoners were more likely to be aware about upcoming elections than national averages, indicating that turnout could be high.

A separate “mega” poll by Yougov suggested that Labour could lose long-held councils to the Greens while Reform UK could make headway in south east London. 

Half of London’s 32 councils are rated by the polling firm as either “very close” or “super close” though the projection has Labour winning six fewer councils than it did in 2022. 

Freshwater Strategy polling lead Matthew Lesh said the results could be “messy”. 

“Perhaps the only safe prediction is that the map that comes out next month will look very little like the one that went in,” he said.

London calling

Angst over local issues may be a central reason for Labour’s demise: the housing market is dysfunctional, council taxes are rising, shoppers are worried about crime and transport links seem to fail residents.

Broader disapproval with Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership may also contribute to the drop in support. Some voters in Greater London could take aim at the party’s stance on events in the Middle East, particularly in Gaza, while others could punish the government for failing to address economic challenges around housing, taxes, unemployment and inflation. 

Labour strategists have attempted to persuade voters to reject alternatives and instead back councillors that are more likely to get on with ministers working in SW1. 

The main opposition in the city, the Conservatives, have reasons of their own to worry. The failure to mount a comeback would raise questions about whether there could ever be a way back for a party that is keen to retake Wandsworth, Westminster and Barnet back while maintaining the likes of Kensington & Chelsea, Hillingdon and Bexley. It is unclear whether Kemi Badenoch’s jump in approval will help councillors secure votes at ballot boxes. 

Reform UK has talked up their chances of winning in outer areas which Nigel Farage suggested “don’t feel like London”. The Greens will also hope that the rapid rise of its leader Zack Polanski in approval ratings can help it transform the electoral map, with the party taking its own discourse beyond climate change to focus on the cost of living, rent controls and foreign policy. 

For Sir Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats, the challenge will mainly be to stave off new party threats in its three south west London councils, and whether voters in other areas in fact take to its centrist offering. Tower Hamlets mayor Lutfur Rahman of the Aspire party, which is affiliated to Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party, is also facing one of the biggest votes of his turbulent political career so far. 

Pollsters have largely agreed the results on May 8 are hard to predict. Below you can see the electoral map as won in 2022, and click through to preview articles.