Greens close gap with Labour in polls after historic by-election win
The Greens are now biting at the heels of the Labour Party in national polling after its candidate Hannah Spencer stormed to a historic by-election win in Gorton and Denton last week.
The latest Morning Wire/Freshwater Strategy poll puts the Greens on 15 per cent, with Labour ahead of them by three points, a smaller margin than previously recorded by pollsters.
Compared to the time of the General Election, it would represent an eight-point increase for the Green Party and a collapse of 17 points for Labour.
Reform UK topped the polls on 30 per cent of the voter share, the Conservatives were level with Labour on 18 per cent and the Liberal Democrats trailed the Green Party on 13 per cent.
The numbers reflect the seismic shift in UK politics over recent months, with the by-election in suburban Manchester last week being the first where neither Labour or the Tories finished in the top two spots.
The Greens’ Hannah Spencer took over 40 per cent of the vote share in the constituency while Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin followed with just under 29 per cent of the share. Labour’s Angeliki Stogia came third with around 25.4 per cent of voters backing her.
A majority of voters (73 per cent) say that Starmer should take responsibility for Labour’s defeat and 56 per cent say that his position as leader is no longer tenable given the result. Brits are more likely to agree that Labour would fare better at the next general election under a different leader.
Several Labour MPs have raised the alarm on the risk the party faces from the left, with the Greens also scoring highest in favourability ratings across all political parties.
Its leader Zack Polanski saw his approval ratings rise to minus five in February, compared to -42 for Sir Keir Starmer, -19 for Nigel Farage and -4 for Kemi Badenoch.
Green Party surge adds to woes for Starmer
The most popular individual polled by Morning Wire/Freshwater Strategy was Andy Burnham, who was denied the ability to stand in the by-election by the Labour Party’s National Executive Committee.
Labour veterans have weighed in with analysis on the loss of a former safe seat.
Former Labour deputy leader Tom Watson urged the government to not “shift left” on policy as the Greens had benefitted from assembling a “temporary coalition of protest voters, identity voters and signal senders, which can look like a governing majority until polling day is over”.
He also said in a Substack post that Burnham would not have won the seat in Gorton and Denton.
Cabinet members bit their tongues after the devastating election results for Labour, with MPs largely remaining silent on the prospect of a change of leadership.
Starmer will hope that he can shore up some political support over his response to the conflict with Iran, for which he has already faced intense criticism, and with a renewed policy focus on the cost of living.
Local elections in May will provide another test for the governing party as it is set to defend hundreds of council seats across the country.
Method note: Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,221 eligible voters in the UK, aged 18+ online, between 27 February – 1 March 2026. Margin of Error +/- 2.8%. Data are weighted to be representative of UK voters. Freshwater Strategy are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.