London is getting the wrong new railway
The Docklands Light Railway (DLR) extension to Thamesmead is the wrong railway, at the wrong price, for all the wrong political reasons, argues James Ford
Ooops. Rachel Reeves is about to shoot herself in the foot. Again. I thought about keeping quiet about this imminent act of self-harm. Afterall, not only did Napoleon counsel that you should never interrupt an opponent when they are making a mistake (and the Chancellor is surely the opponent of every honest taxpayer nowadays), but Reeves herself has complained that she is sick of people ‘mansplaining’ how to be Chancellor to her. However, given that this is likely to be the capital’s only major transport infrastructure project over the next decade (other than the ongoing construction of the HS2 hub at Old Oak Common), it seems I would otherwise have a very long time to regret not speaking out. So, here goes: the DLR extension to Thamesmead is not the best – or most cost effective – way to boost the London economy.
Now, the DLR extension – set to be given the greenlight in the Budget later this week – is not without its merits as a project. At £1.7bn, it is a much cheaper and quicker way of unlocking the construction of than the Bakerloo Line extension (which is estimated to cost up to £8.2bn). The project will support Peabody’s existing regeneration of social housing in the area and be essential if the proposed Thamesmead New Town is ever to be more than just a pipedream. And, having lived nearby in Woolwich for over a decade, heaven knows I can sympathise with the tenants of Thamesmead for wanting a quicker way to get out of Thamesmead (even if it is only to get as far as the equally insalubrious environs of Beckton and Galleons Reach).
DLR is only half a solution
However, of all the myriad transport investment projects in London that have languished under the current mayor, the ‘Clockwork Orange’ Line would not be my first choice to receive truckloads of public money. The proposed DLR extension is only half a solution to Thamesmead’s connectivity problems. The real economic and interchange benefits would come by carrying this extension on to nearby Abbey Wood, where passengers would be able to access the Elizabeth Line, Thameslink and commuter services on the North Kent Line.
By contrast, the (WLO) – a proposed expansion of the London Overground network from West Hampstead and Hendon to Hounslow – offers much better value for money. Whereas the DLR extension to Thamesmead is expected to cost £1.7bn to deliver 3km (1.9miles) of track and two new stations, the WLO offers to give London 18.5km (11 miles) of track and connect between 15 and 21 stations (some new, some existing) for just one third of the cost (£610m at 2021 prices according to TfL’s own figures). The project has a benefit-cost ratio of 2.2, creates twice as many jobs (up to 23,000) as the DLR extension and would join up ten new and existing rail, underground and overground lines as well as facilitating journeys for 11.9m passengers a year. Now, I’m no economist, but even I can spot that creating twice as many jobs for one-third the cost to the taxpayer sounds like a pretty good deal. The only measure by which the DLR extension trumps the WLO is in terms of potential new homes built: 25,000 versus 15,800. And therein lies the rub.
The prism through which this decision – and, indeed, all head-scratching London policy decisions from now on – mush be viewed is City Hall’s chronic inability to build new homes
The prism through which this decision – and, indeed, all head-scratching London policy decisions from now on – mush be viewed is City Hall’s chronic inability to build new homes. Why is the mayor abandoning his long-standing pledge to protect the greenbelt? Why are London’s affordable housing targets being torn up? And, now, why must West London wait for much needed jobs and homes? Because the Mayor of London has failed to build new homes in the numbers he should have. Indeed, he is failing to build on such an epic scale that it is jeopardising the government’s national housebuilding targets, hence why their policy interventions are becoming more and more dramatic.
Whilst the denizens of Thamesmead may understandably rejoice at their good fortune – and Sadiq Khan probably cannot believe his continued good luck in avoiding being held responsible for his greatest failings – let there be no doubt: this is not the railway that London needs most right now. For all her rhetoric about the importance of economic growth when seeking office, the Chancellor finds herself now forsaking genuine growth to clean up Sadiq Khan’s mess. In the meantime, somebody is going to have to break it to the people of Neasdon, Acton, Harlesdon, Isleworth, and Brentford that the new railway that could have changed their lives has been delayed indefinitely.
James Ford was an adviser to former Mayor of London Boris Johnson on transport policy