London local elections 2026: Who will win in Merton?
The Lib Dems’ serve up a “Gail’s strategy” to try and ace the vote in Wimbledon’s borough, where calls for affordable homes are rallying support and a local resident’s group has won seats.
In Merton, home of the Wimbledon Championships, the Liberal Democrats have their best chance of smashing an ace past the Labour incumbents.
Labour won 31 seats in this south London borough in 2022 but it was the Lib Dems who made gains, tallying 17 seats and overtaking the Tories to become Merton’s official opposition for the first time.
The Lib Dems and Labour have each since lost one councillor apiece, but veteran pollster Lord Hayward is betting on yellow, as he tips Ed Davey’s party to mount his most significant challenge to Keir Starmer in this corner of south London.
The final outcome will likely come at around 5am on Friday 8th May in what will be one of the vote results for any London borough after polling day.
Lib Dems eye Gail’s strategy
The Liberal Democrat will be hoping to repeat their 2024 general election strategy, when they famously targeted areas that feature a Gail’s – with the upmarket bakery chain having become a synonym for middle-class middle England.
The borough of Merton, according to Morning Wire’s analysis, counts at least two Gail’s, and so the Lib Dems may be in luck.
Other than pricey pastries, Davey’s party are taking the fight to Labour over affordable homes – a common battleground in London’s local elections this year.
Merton’s Liberal Democrats are accusing the local Labour party of hypocrisy for allegedly spending £230,000 of public money on renovating council offices while failing to build the 400 affordable homes they supposedly promised.
Paul Kohler won Wimbledon’s seat in parliament for the Lib Dems at the general election. He has been hitting the streets to turn Merton yellow at the local level.
Residents’ Association controls one ward
One unique aspect of Merton’s local election is a peculiar shade of purple on its ward map, which clashes notably with Lib Dem yellow. It represents the Merton Park Residents’ Association, which has held every seat in its home ward since its creation, though it was reduced to two seats last time around.
The association began as a “not in my backyard” style lobby group, opposing the destruction of a row of Victorian houses, when there were proposals to extend a motorway across a conservation area. But it diversified from these NIMBY origins to campaign for the redevelopment of a local hospital and the regeneration of Merton town centre.
It would be an upset if the Lib Dems were to pinch a Merton Park seat or two from the purple brigade, but the bookies suggest they may do fine without them.
Morning Wire is previewing local election votes taking place in every London borough. Click here for a full overview of May 7.