No growth expected for November due to late Budget
New GDP figures this week will show zero growth in the UK economy as weeks of uncertainty around the Budget weighed down on activity in November, according to economists.
A Bloomberg poll of economists predicted the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to write in zero GDP growth in the second last month of the year.
Stagnation in the UK economy will come as a result of a decline in construction and continued struggles in the manufacturing sector, while the services sector is also set for marginal growth.
The estimate, due to be published on Thursday, would be better than figures for October, which showed a decline in the UK economy of 0.1 per cent.
Daiwa Capital Markets analysts suggested growth in the services sector would be “modest” while survey data showed that “Budget uncertainty continued to weigh down on business activity”.
Little to no growth may put Chancellor Rachel Reeves in business leaders’ firing line after she was heavily criticised for scheduling a late Budget, with tax rumours running wild for several weeks.
Growth to be ‘moderate’ in 2025’s last quarter
Barclays UK economist Jack Meaning said there could be moderate growth due to a pick-up in car manufacturing in the wake of Jaguar Land Rover’s re-opening since it paused production due to the cyberattack.
He said a bounce in consumer spending over the month could also push growth slightly higher.
“Although a nominal measure, our own Barclaycard spendtrends data series showed a bounce in activity at the very end of November, coinciding with the aftermath of the budget on 26 November and Black Friday,” Meaning said.
“The subsequent data suggests this was short-lived and waned quickly through December, again supporting our view of a muted end to 2026 for UK activity.”
Pantheon Macroeconomics analysts meanwhile suggested the biggest factor holding back against UK growth would be low attendance in the education sector due to the ‘super flu’.
Labour government officials will likely avoid dwelling on low growth figures for too long.
They will instead hope to talk up their economic plans for 2026, including in rolling out new workers’ rights through the Employment Rights Bill, which is set to gain royal assent.
Keir Starmer has also made tackling the cost of living a central focus in public messaging despite growth being their number one mission.