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Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

  • Badenoch: Welfare ‘fudge’ driven by ‘panic not principle’

    July 1, 2025

    Kemi Badenoch has branded Labour’s welfare reforms a “fudge” that will fail to curb the government’s spiralling welfare bill on health and disability benefits.  MPs are set to vote on work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall’s welfare bill aimed at getting more inactive Brits back into the national workforce by changing eligibility for personal independence [...]

  • Living standards warning: ‘the decade looks bleak’

    June 26, 2025

    British families will not see their income grow in the next five years while pensioners will be £1,500 better off, economic researchers have projected in a “bleak” analysis that cast a shadow over government plans to boost households’ budgets.  Chancellor Reeves claimed at this year’s Spring Statement that Britons would be £500 better off each [...]

  • Labour doubles down on welfare vote despite massive revolt

    June 25, 2025

    The Labour government has doubled down on holding a vote on its controversial welfare bill – worth £4.8bn in savings – as soon as next week, despite opposition from more than 130 of its own backbenchers.  Angela Rayner told the House of Commons on Wednesday afternoon the government would press ahead with reforms to personal [...]

  • Tax hikes dragging investment to worst level since pandemic, CBI says 

    June 18, 2025

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ dramatic tax hike on employment has helped push firms’ investment plans down to the worst level in five years, contributing to a downgrade in the Confederation of British Industry (CBI)’s latest economic outlook.  The CBI now believe that the UK economy will only grow 1.2 per cent this year and slow down [...]

  • OBR ridiculed for ‘joke of a salary’ in analyst job offer

    May 20, 2025

    The UK’s fiscal watchdog has been ridiculed for offering a “joke of a salary” after advertising for new roles. The Office for Budget Responsibility is hiring for three new “fiscal analysts” based in London with a salary range of just £38,430-52,000, despite the jobs being graded a “higher executive officer” function within the organisation. The [...]

  • Is this a sweet trade deal with the EU – or does it sound a bit fishy? 

    May 19, 2025

    Keir Starmer will be boasting about his latest catch in international diplomacy: a trade deal with the European Union, which the government hopes will boost the chances of landing higher growth.  In an agreement that hands EU boats continued rights in British seas until 2038, slashing red tape on food checks and increasing cooperation on [...]

  • Boost for Rachel Reeves as UK economy booms in first quarter

    May 15, 2025

    The UK economy surged by 0.7 per cent in the first three months of the year, official data has shown, suggesting firms boosted production ahead of Rachel Reeves’s tax rises in April and the threat of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.  Fresh data provided by the Office for National Statistics showed that the UK economy grew [...]

  • Construction firms lose hope but businesses are ‘showing resilience’

    April 30, 2025

    Construction firms have grown despondent about their business prospects despite signs of resilience across the UK economy, a new survey has found.  The sector is key to the housing secretary Angela Rayner’s plans to build 1.5m homes by 2030 though early signs suggest the ambitious target will not be met.  Construction saw a bigger drop [...]

  • Trump, tariffs and GDP: How do you forecast uncertainty?

    April 12, 2025

    The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), one of the UK’s central forecasters, prepared itself for President Trump’s tariff war – or at least partially.  At a presentation after Chancellor Reeves’ Spring Statement, OBR chair Richard Hughes admitted the fiscal watchdog’s central forecast risked being completely undermined by global events.  Hughes came up with three possible [...]

  • UK growth in February smashes low expectations

    April 11, 2025

    The UK economy grew by 0.5 per cent in February, official data has shown, beating forecasters’ expectations by a wide margin. A Bloomberg poll of economists predicted growth to come in at 0.1 per cent for the month.  UK GDP grew 0.6 per cent in the three months to February, the Office for National Statistics [...]

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