Premiership faces having just one team in Champions Cup quarter-final unless Exeter Chiefs pull off an historic win at Munster
England's hopes of having more than one team in the European Champions Cup quarter-finals were given a lifeline last weekend as Exeter Chiefs rallied to a bonus point win over Castres at Sandy Park.
Despite that statement performance, the Chiefs will have to gather themselves and go again this weekend if they are to progress beyond the pool stage for the first time since 2016 and join Saracens in the next round.
In order to reach the quarter-finals they face the unenviable task of having to beat Irish giants Munster at Thomond Park, while denying their opponents a bonus point in the process.
It's top the pool or bust for Rob Baxter's side, who cannot progress as runners-up due to an inferior points tally compared with other second-placed teams after a disappointing start to their campaign saw them fail to win their opening three matches.
Bouncing back
Since losing their round three match at home to Gloucester, Exeter have bounced back to put to bed some of the questions around their European form.
Bonus-point wins away to Gloucester and at home to Castres have lifted them right back into contention – but it could all be too little, too late.
Munster have not lost at home in Europe for 11 successive games, or in any competition for over a year, and won 41-15 away to Gloucester last time out.
Exeter can take some positives from a 10-10 draw in the reverse fixture that saw them go toe-to-toe with the Irish side, as well as a resounding win over Castres in which winger Jack Nowell returned from injury with a man-of-the-match performance just before the Six Nations' squad announcement.
Only a win will do
Simply put, a win would see Exeter move level with Munster on 17 points and they would sit first in the pool thanks to their superior head-to-head record.
“We have to collect at least a four-point gap to get level with Munster, but we have given ourselves a definite something to go over there and play for,” Baxter said.
"We can genuinely talk this week about going and testing ourselves in one of Europe's iconic venues against one of Europe's iconic teams, in as close to a knockout as we could get.”
But as Bath, Wasps, Gloucester and Newcastle all crash out of the competition, the situation Exeter find themselves in is symptomatic of the top Premiership sides' current inferiority to their counterparts in the Pro14 and Top 14.
While the Pro14 and Top 14 each look set to have multiple representatives in the quarter-finals, the Premiership looks like it will be solely represented by Saracens for the second year in a row – unless Exeter can pull off one of the biggest wins in their history.