Reform and Conservative supporters are open to an alliance, Morning Wire poll finds
Over half of Reform and Conservative voters support a merger or deal between the two parties, fresh polling by Freshwater Strategy and Morning Wire has found, as Tory leader Kemi Badenoch wrestles to contain the surge in support for her upstart rivals in the wake of the local elections.
The prospect of a ‘unite the right’ alliance is particularly popular among Reform’s ranks, with 51 per cent in favour, while a slim majority (48 per cent to 44 per cent) of Tory supporters back the idea.
For voters, an electoral pact – wherein Conservatives and Reform agree to not run candidates against other in certain seats – is also a popular strategy.
While the Conservatives are the oldest existing party in the UK, having recently been in No 10 for 14 consecutive years, Farage is boasting of having replaced them as ‘the main party on the right.’
The bullish remarks follow last month’s local election results, where the Reform party won 677 seats – largely at the expense of the Tories, who lost 674.
An electoral pact could prevent votes on the right from being diluted between the two parties, though so far the party leaders have ruled out such an arrangement.
Steve Akehurst, director of think tank Persuasion UK and polling expert, told Morning Wire the migration of votes from the Tories to Reform could be attributed to an anti-Labour bloc of voters flocking to the most powerful party opposing Labour.
“The anti-Labour vote is making itself more efficient, it’s falling in behind the best party to kick Labour, and for many people that’s Reform,” Akehurst said.
If either party does particularly well in the next general election, a majority of supporters from both parties are amenable to a coalition.
Though this is, again, more popular within Reform, where 61 per cent would like to see a formal coalition, compared to 52 per cent of Tories.
Farage still top of the polls
The Tory party’s overall approval rating among voters stands at -24, and Labour are at -29. The Greens enjoy +10 while the Lib Dems are on +5.
Farage’s approval rating has maintained its steady rise, jumping from -8 to -2.
Keir Starmer’s ratings are also improving – though the figures are likely to console the PM, as they have risen from -36 to -32; still making him the least popular party leader.
According to the Morning Wire poll of UK voters, Farage is the favorite for No. 10, with 40 per cent of voters wanting to see him become Prime Minister. Between Kemi Badenoch and Starmer, 4 per cent more voters would prefer Badenoch as PM.
In terms of voting intention, Reform UK is up to 32 per cent, while Labour and the Tories are tied at 21 per cent.
Tory succession battle cut short
Over half of Tory supporters want to keep Badenoch in post, despite noises around her unpopularity, and rumors that Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick is ready to claim the crown if she falls.
Only 34 per cent of current party supporters would see Badenoch displaced. The jury is out for the final 24 per cent of both current Tory supporters and 2024 Tory voters.
If Badenoch were to step down, Jenrick and former foreign secretary James Cleverly are both tied among Tory supporters at 12 per cent.
Local concerns over crime
Asked about immediate local concerns, crime dominates.
45 per cent cited being worried about fare evasion, which might suggest Jenrick’s vigilante strategy of ‘catching’ fare dodgers to draw attention to the issue is in tune with public sentiment.
70 per cent of voters are most worried about shoplifting, closely followed by littering, and public drug use.
37 per cent are worried about a proliferation of barber shops in their area a rise linked to reports the grooming establishments might act as a front for criminal activity, like drug trafficking.
Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,250 between the 6th and 8th of June. There is a 2.8 per cent margin of error.