Revealed: The biggest overpayments and best deals of the football transfer window
Chelsea overpaid by £34m when they made Moises Caicedo the most expensive transfer in Premier League football history, according to independent research.
The Blues agreed to pay an initial £100m, rising to a possible £115m, for Caicedo after winning a bidding war with Liverpool for the Brighton midfielder this summer.
But Football Benchmark, an industry advisory practice spun out of KPMG, says Caicedo only had an objective market value of £66m.
That deal tops a list of the 10 most overpriced transfers of the current transfer window compiled by Football Benchmark.
Arsenal’s signing of Declan Rice, for a guaranteed £100m plus £5m in potential add-ons, is second on the list, representing a premium of £33.5m.
Saudi Pro League side Al-Ahli’s £77m signing of Brazil superstar Neymar from Paris Saint-Germain was a £33m overpayment, according to the analysis.
Football Benchmark’s objective valuations are calculated using factors that include comparable deals, player performance, position, age and existing contract.
It does not, however, account for other market forces, such as competition for a player’s signing or their commercial importance – a factor in Neymar’s acquisition.
Big-spending Chelsea have three deals in the top 10 list of overpayments, with Romeo Lavia and Lesley Ugochukwu also featuring.
The west London club paid Southampton around £53m for Lavia, a premium of £18m, and £23m for Rennes midfielder Ugochukwu – more than three times his £7m valuation.
Al-Ahli also have three transfers in the top 10, with their £47m signing of Wolves midfielder Ruben Neves a £28m overpayment, and their £45m deal for Fulham striker Aleksandar Mitrovic estimated to be £17m over the odds.
It’s not all bad news for Chelsea, however. The £32m transfer fee they extracted from Newcastle for full-back Tino Livramento to Newcastle was £13m over his objective valuation.
And their £52m signing of RB Leipzig forward Christopher Nkunku came in at £27m less than his market value – the summer’s third biggest bargain, according to Football Benchmark.
Despite costing Real Madrid £88m, England midfielder Jude Bellingham was the best value as he was estimated to be worth closer to £130m.
