Romney gears up for November’s election that Obama could still lose
EVER since it became clear that he’d be facing Barack Obama in November, Mitt Romney has frustrated the Democrats. The expected gaffes have rarely surfaced, his stump speeches have improved and the Republican candidate has remained on message, consistently focusing on the economy and jobs. It’s a development that has seen some Democrats, who had privately predicted a cakewalk only a matter of weeks ago, develop a case of collective amnesia.
After Tuesday’s Texas contest, President Obama is now facing a Republican candidate officially stripped of the ideological stress-test that comes with arduous primaries. Romney is raising money – lots of it – and has rallied the base and created a sense that November is an entirely winnable contest. The Republican currently has poll leads in the swing-states of Florida and North Carolina.
The President’s re-election campaign has certainly got off to a spluttering start. Obama is clearly uncomfortable running as the incumbent, knowing that he can’t sell four more years of the same. His campaign has acknowledged that they’ll be going almost entirely negative through November. And yet, the attacks on Romney have appeared sloppy. In addition, Obama has contrived a slogan, but lacks a compelling narrative to sell to voters. “Forward” certainly rings with the “bear with me” I predicted a few months ago, but it hardly breeds confidence with an electorate that’s growing more pessimistic by the day.
One might say the first challenge for the President before November is next week’s gubernatorial contest in Wisconsin. This contest, according to Democratic chairman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, has given the “Obama for America operation an opportunity to do the dry run.” It’s therefore telling that the President, knowing his electoral limitations, has avoided the contest in the Badger State altogether. If Republican Governor Scott Walker can hold on it will provide substantial momentum for the Romney campaign in that state, forcing Democrats to expend significant resources in a state some have taken for granted. The polls have Obama and Romney tied in Wisconsin, a state Republicans last won in Ronald Reagan’s landslide in 1984. It’s also a sign that Obama’s re-election hopes are far rockier than most think.
Of course, Romney still faces challenges of his own. As residents in Aberdeenshire know all too well, it’s tough to jettison Donald Trump (who claims Obama was born in Kenya and so is ineligible for the presidency), especially when he brings such sizeable economic benefits. Trump’s embarrassing utterances regarding the President’s birthplace are a needless distraction for Romney and may have finally provided Democrats with an ideal opportunity to taint and stigmatise his candidacy. But Democrats delighted that they have finally knocked Romney off his stride will be quite aware that this is temporary. Come next Tuesday evening, the President’s problems could be much more long term.
Ewan Watt is a Washington DC-based consultant. You can follow him on @ewancwatt