Six Nations 2016: England predicted to beat France and win grand slam according to complex mathematical formula from insurance group QBE
England will win the grand slam by the finest of margins on Saturday – that's according to insurance firm QBE who have devised a complex formula to predict the outcome of Six Nations matches.
QBE's rugby predictor has correctly forecast 9 of 12 results so far this tournament and came within two points of the correct score in England's last match against Wales.
This weekend it predicts England will squeeze past France 18-17 and win their first grand slam title since 2003.
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The rugby predictor simulated the tournament 10,000 times to produce the outcome from 150,000 games, using a wide range of variables including the number of tries, kicks and conversions scored by each team.
Ahead of the tournament QBE forecast Ireland to win a third successive Six Nations title.
England were predicted to win all their games with the exception of the final day showdown in Paris, but after inputting updated data from intervening performances England are now given a favourable 49 per cent chance of winning the tie.
"The rugby predictor uses just one of the many tools of analysis our experts combine in their everyday modelling," said QBE's director of UK and Ireland Matthew Crane.
"England were crowned champions on Sunday after France's defeat and this is the first time the title has been decided with a round to go, showing that this has been one of the toughest tournaments ever to predict.
"Rugby teams are not that different from businesses as they have to understand the risks and prepare for every eventuality."
Elsewhere this weekend Ireland are seen beating Scotland 30 – 19 while Wales are predicted to demolish Italy 39 – 12.