Spain can hold their nerve to lift the title
HOLLAND vs SPAIN
SUNDAY – 7.30PM BBC 1 AND ITV 1
MOST football purists would have been purring at the start of the tournament if I’d said it was going to be a Netherlands v Spain final in Johannesburg on Sunday 11th July. However, the Dutch have taken a far more pragmatic approach to this year’s competition, while Spain have only made it to the final thanks to three 1-0 victories in the knockout stages.
Remarkably, neither of these countries have ever won a World Cup and for Spain this is their first ever appearance in a final. Similarly strange is that these two great footballing nations have never met at a World Cup or European Championship, so this is truly history in the making. There is nothing to split them in terms of previous meetings with both teams winning four of nine contests, the last being a 1-0 friendly win for Holland in 2002.
No team has ever won the World Cup having lost their opening game, but Spain are just one game away from rubbishing that stat. They have yet to hit full stride, but are packed full of quality and their performance against Germany in the second half on Wednesday night underlined their position as the best side in the competition. The way they pass and move is a joy to watch and with Xavi and Andrés Iniesta pulling the strings in the middle and David Villa providing the killer finish they have the potency to unlock the stingiest of defences.
There is no doubt that Spain are a wonderful side going forward, but it’s been their work ethic and defensive organisation that have particularly impressed me in the past few games. Look back at the Portugal and Germany games and it’s a real struggle to even remember a chance for either of their opponents. Barcelona form the backbone of the team and Carles Puyol and Gerard Piqué have been immense throughout, conceding just two goals in their six games.
Holland haven’t won as many fans as they normally do at these tournaments as, to be honest, they play more like a traditional German side than the typical Dutch ‘Total Football’ one we’ve come to know and love. That said, they have been clinical, winning all six games so far, and their performances against Brazil and Uruguay showed just how much confidence is running through the side.
Wesley Sneijder has had an unbelievable season with Inter Milan and he has been the Oranje’s star player by a mile. Arjen Robben, who came into the tournament with injury troubles, has also stepped up to the mark in the past two games and with Robin van Persie on the scene as well this is a side full of goalscoring potential.
The hope is that both of these teams peak at exactly the right time to make it a final to remember, but I can’t see either side losing their discipline and just one defensive mistake could prove incredibly costly. Holland have scored two or more goals in five of their six games, but crucially they have conceded in all of their last four and they won’t want to take on Spain in a passing game.
I have no doubt that the Dutch are going to prove a stern test for the Spanish, but their display against Germany showed me that they are ready to notch another major trophy and I’ll be backing them to win in 90 minutes at 11/10 with William Hill. The opening period could be quite cagey, as it has been in all of Spain’s last three games, so I’d also be tempted to back the draw HT / Spain FT market at 4/1 with Paddy Power.
It’s hardly ‘boring, boring Spain’ syndrome, but the 1-0 victory has become something of a pattern and with their 2008 European Cup final win against Germany also coming by that scoreline, I’ll have a go at that at around the 11/2 mark with Starsportsbet.co.uk. There have been two or fewer goals in four of the last World Cup finals and in five of Spain’s six games here, so spread bettors should sell goals at 2.1 with Sporting Index.
POINTERS…
Spain to win in 90 minutes at 11/10 with William Hill
Draw HT / Spain FT at 4/1 with Paddy Power
Spain to win 1-0 at 11/2 on Starsportsbet.co.uk
Sell total match goals at 2.1 with Sporting Index