Starmer is being squeezed from all directions
Labour and the Conservatives have lost public trust and are being challenged by insurgents on both the left and the right, new polling shows, says Matthew Lesh
Clowns to the left of me. Jokers to the right. Here’s Keir Starmer – stuck in the middle, losing you.
The catastrophic defeat of the government by the Green Party in the Gorton and Denton by-election is the latest chapter in a fragmenting British politics. A formally safe Labour urban seat, comprised of traditionally reliable white working class and Muslim voters, has been torn apart – dramatically pivoting to the left, while Reform surges to take second place. While much has rightly been written about the rise of Reform, this is the first clear electoral evidence that the Green Party is emerging as a parallel threat.
Today’s Morning Wire / Freshwater Strategy Poll highlights the government’s precarious position. The Prime Minister remains deeply unpopular (NET -42), the Labour Party’s vote is languishing (just 18 per cent, up one point), while the Green Party are in striking distance (up one point to 15 per cent) ahead of the Lib Dems (down 1 point to 13 per cent). But overall, Reform (at 30 per cent, unchanged) is still topping the polls, while the official opposition, the Tories (at 18 per cent, down four points), is faring no better than the government. We have entered uncharted territory as the traditionally dominant parties have lost public trust.
Starmer hasn’t been helped by the Peter Mandelson scandal, with two-thirds (65 per cent) of voters agreeing that the government has a problem with ‘sleaze’ and corruption. A damning position for a government that came in promising, unlike those Tories, to be squeaky clean. A majority (59 per cent) now believe that the Prime Minister should resign following the scandal.
For now, Starmer is safe. Leadership rivals are keeping their powder dry. With a new war in the Middle East dominating headlines, they are content to let Starmer absorb the inevitable punishment of the May local elections before making their move.
But this reprieve will not address the government’s visual unpopularity, the public’s dismay with the state of the country, or make the Prime Minister any more likely to survive the year (excluding a ‘rally round the flag’ effect from a protracted international conflict).
Back to Zack
It’s difficult to know where the government should move next. Many, particularly frustrated younger and Muslim voters – who believe the government has failed to address economic inequality and climate change, or taken a tough enough stance on racism and Palestine – are coming back to Zack Polanski (whose personal approval is up six points this month, to NET -5).
Green voters want a sharp leftward turn in policy. But the government knows it needs to be careful here. Putting aside the questionable policies themselves, Greens supporters are very far from a majority, and their concerns are not necessarily representative. Voters’ top concern remains reducing the cost of living, and their second is cutting immigration. Reform and Tory voters, perhaps unsurprisingly, think the government should move to the right.
With this messy dynamic playing out in the country, and Number 10 having lost much of its authority, the government’s strategy for now appears to be one of triangulation. A step to the left on tax and spend, one to the right on immigration. Trying to provide some red meat to the backbenches in the hope that they will not revolt. But, as the saying goes, standing in the middle of the road can be extremely dangerous – you get knocked down by the traffic from both sides. No one is particularly satisfied with a government that’s all over the place.
Intriguingly, a majority of voters select ‘unsure’ or ‘neither’ when asked whether the government should turn to the left or right – perhaps indicating that most want pragmatic improvements to their lives rather than being ideologically directed. But on this front too, the government is struggling. Three-quarters (75 per cent) lack confidence in the government’s plan to achieve growth, and a majority (50 per cent) expect the economy to worsen over the next year. Above all, Starmer was elected on a promise of competence and stability. Now, unable to deliver and under attack from every direction, the political picture is unlikely to get much rosier.
Matthew Lesh is Country Manager at Freshwater Strategy