The Conservative party is at a crossroads
On net zero and housing policy, there are signs that the Conservatives are responding to the challenges this country faces, says Simon Clarke
A Party at a crossroads. That’s been the mood of Conservatives here at their party conference in Manchester this week. But better a crossroads than a dead end.
That’s the finding of Onward’s latest megapoll, this time of 5000 people aged 16-40. We found the Conservatives are polling an underwhelming 14 per cent among this age group. But that’s only part of the story. These generations are not hostile to conservative policies – a third would consider voting for the party as things stand, and fully 48 per cent believe the state should tax and redistribute less. Do they have confidence that the party shares their values, or can deliver on good policy? No, and that’s an enormous challenge. But the Westminster truism that young people hate the Conservatives simply isn’t accurate.
So the centre-right needs to up its game to turn small c conservatism into big C electoral support. The most damning statistic in our polling was that 48 per cent of young people leant towards “working hard and playing by the rules does not determine your success” as opposed to “if you work hard and play by the rules, you will go far”, which scored 31 per cent. That disillusionment speaks to so much of what’s gone wrong with Britain – the life milestones of getting a decent job, being able to afford a decent home and settling down to start a family are all getting harder and harder to reach, and doing so is increasingly dependent on your family background.
Reframing the energy debate
There are encouraging signs that the Conservatives are responding to the challenge. The build up to conference was led by Kemi’s announcement that a Conservative government would repeal the Climate Change Act 2008, which sets legally binding targets to deliver net zero by 2050. This is a tough, but sensible, decision. It has become clear that the UK’s energy policy architecture is putting us in a place where households are suffering and it is simply too expensive for British business to compete – making the country steadily poorer and slashing British jobs.
We need a new framing of our energy debate, centred on abundance. We need more of every source of power, including hydrocarbons. From nuclear power to hydrogen, we can grow our economy and protect our environment. But we cannot run ahead of available technology, economic viability or grid capacity. It is insane not to fully use our own oil and gas, and instead import these from overseas (adding both cost and emissions).
Likewise, the Conservatives are in the middle of a major pivot on housebuilding. Young people are abundantly clear that homeownership is a key life goal. Only four per cent of respondents to our poll told us they would never want to own their own home. But almost a quarter (24 per cent) of under 40s doubt they will ever be able to own their home – jumping to 38 per cent of those aged 36-40. Homeownership has historically underpinned Conservative electoral strength and its vision of a property-owning democracy.
That’s why it’s so good to see Kemi and shadow housing secretary James Cleverly staking out ground the party should never have abandoned when it comes to building the millions of homes we need. At a packed Conservative YIMBY rally, a capacity 300 crowd heard from James about his exciting plans, while the new ConsYIMBY candidate handbook on how to support housebuilding and win is now being sent to every council group by the LGA Conservatives.
So a Party at a crossroads, for sure. But a Party that looks and sounds very different already to the one that lost a year ago. To win again, the Conservatives will have to communicate and deliver on their values.
Sir Simon Clarke is the Director of Onward. Becoming Blue was published by Onward this month, sponsored by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung – Becoming Blue | Onward